尼日利亚的外部冲击及其传导渠道:动态随机一般均衡方法

Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance
T. Ojeyinka, D. Yinusa
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引用次数: 1

摘要

该研究调查了外部冲击的来源,并使用该国五大贸易伙伴的贸易加权变量调查了其在尼日利亚的传播渠道。基于小型开放型经济模型的假设,本研究采用新凯恩斯主义动态随机一般均衡模型,对1981年至2018年的季度数据进行贝叶斯估计。研究结果表明,外部冲击对尼日利亚经济产生了短暂的影响。此外,文章还表明,油价、国外产出和国外通胀冲击对产出缺口和通胀有正向影响,而国外利率冲击对产出差距和通胀的影响是负的,并不显著。研究还表明,外部冲击分别解释了产出缺口和通货膨胀总波动的86%和39%。最后,研究发现,外部冲击通过不同渠道传递给尼日利亚经济。因此,该研究得出结论,贸易条件和汇率渠道是尼日利亚外部冲击的主要传导者。根据研究结果,强调了重要的政策影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
External Shocks and Their Transmission Channels in Nigeria: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach
The study examines the sources of external shocks and investigates their transmission channels in Nigeria using the trade-weighted variables from the country’s five top trading partners. Based on the assumption of the small open economy model, the study adopts the New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model on quarterly data between 1981 and 2018 using the Bayesian estimation technique. Findings from the study reveal that external shocks have a temporary and short-lived effect on the Nigerian economy. In addition, the article shows that oil price, foreign output, and foreign inflation shock have positive impacts on output gap and inflation, while the impact of foreign interest rate shock on the output gap and inflation is negative and not significant. The study also reveals that external shocks collectively explain 86% and 39%of total fluctuations in the output gap and inflation, respectively. Lastly, the study finds that external shocks transmit to the Nigerian economy via different channels. The study, therefore, concludes that terms of trade and exchange rate channels are the dominant transmitters of external shocks in Nigeria. Based on the findings from the study, important policy implications are highlighted.
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来源期刊
Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies
Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics, Econometrics and Finance (miscellaneous)
CiteScore
2.70
自引率
0.00%
发文量
27
期刊介绍: Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies is a peer-reviewed journal. The aim of the journal is to provide an international platform for knowledge sharing, discussion and networking on the various aspects related to emerging market economies through publications of original research. It aims to make available basic reference material for policy-makers, business executives and researchers interested in issues of fundamental importance to the economic prospects and performance of emerging market economies. The topics for discussion are related to the following general categories: D. Microeconomics E. Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics F. International Economics G. Financial Economics H. Public Economics I. Health, Education, and Welfare J. Labor and Demographic Economics L. Industrial Organization O. Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth Q. Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics • Environmental and Ecological Economics R. Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics Additionally, the journal would be most interested to publish topics related to Global Financial Crisis and the Impact on Emerging Market Economies Economic Development and Inclusive Growth Climate Change and Energy Infrastructure Development and Public Private Partnerships Capital Flows to and from Emerging Market Economies Regional Cooperation Trade and Investment and Development of National and Regional Financial Markets The Belt and Road Initiative.
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