布兰丁的海龟人口统计学和种群生存能力

IF 0.9 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q4 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION
R. King, Callie Klatt Golba, G. Glowacki, A. R. Kuhns
{"title":"布兰丁的海龟人口统计学和种群生存能力","authors":"R. King, Callie Klatt Golba, G. Glowacki, A. R. Kuhns","doi":"10.3996/JFWM-20-063","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"\n In anticipation of U.S. federal status classification (warranted, warranted but precluded, not warranted), scheduled for 2023, we provide population viability analysis of the Blanding's turtle Emydoidea blandingii, a long-lived, late-maturing, semi-aquatic species of conservation concern throughout its range. We present demographic data from long-term study of a population in northeastern Illinois and use these data as the basis for viability and sensitivity analyses focused on parameter uncertainty and geographic parameter variation. We use population viability analysis to identify population sizes necessary to provide population resiliency to stochastic disturbance events and catastrophes, and demonstrate how alternative definitions of ‘foreseeable future' might affect status decisions. Demographic parameters within our focal population resulted in optimistic population projections (probability of extinction = 0% over 100 y) but results were less optimistic when catastrophes or uncertainty in parameter estimates were incorporated (probability of extinction = 3% and 16%, respectively). Uncertainty in estimates of age-specific mortality had the biggest impact on population viability analysis outcomes but uncertainty in other parameters (age of first reproduction, environmental variation in age-specific mortality, percent of females reproducing, clutch size) also contributed. Blanding's turtle demography varies geographically and incorporating this variation resulted in both mortality- and fecundity-related parameters affecting population viability analysis outcomes. Possibly, compensatory variation among demographic parameters allows for persistence across a wide range of parameter values. We found that extinction risk decreased and retention of genetic diversity increased rapidly with increasing initial population size. In the absence of catastrophes, demographic conservation goals could be met with a smaller initial population size than could genetic conservation goals; ≥20–50 adults were necessary for extinction risk <5%, whereas ≥50–110 adults were necessary to retain >95% of existing genetic diversity over 100 y. These thresholds shifted upward when catastrophes were included; ≥50–200 adults were necessary for extinction risk <5% and ≥110 to >200 adults were necessary to retain >95% of existing genetic diversity over 100 y. Impediments to Blanding's turtle conservation include an incomplete understanding of geographic covariation among demographic parameters, the large amount of effort necessary to estimate and monitor abundance, and uncertainty regarding the impacts of increasingly frequent extreme weather events.","PeriodicalId":49036,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.9000,"publicationDate":"2021-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"7","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Blanding's Turtle Demography and Population Viability\",\"authors\":\"R. King, Callie Klatt Golba, G. Glowacki, A. R. Kuhns\",\"doi\":\"10.3996/JFWM-20-063\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"\\n In anticipation of U.S. federal status classification (warranted, warranted but precluded, not warranted), scheduled for 2023, we provide population viability analysis of the Blanding's turtle Emydoidea blandingii, a long-lived, late-maturing, semi-aquatic species of conservation concern throughout its range. We present demographic data from long-term study of a population in northeastern Illinois and use these data as the basis for viability and sensitivity analyses focused on parameter uncertainty and geographic parameter variation. We use population viability analysis to identify population sizes necessary to provide population resiliency to stochastic disturbance events and catastrophes, and demonstrate how alternative definitions of ‘foreseeable future' might affect status decisions. Demographic parameters within our focal population resulted in optimistic population projections (probability of extinction = 0% over 100 y) but results were less optimistic when catastrophes or uncertainty in parameter estimates were incorporated (probability of extinction = 3% and 16%, respectively). Uncertainty in estimates of age-specific mortality had the biggest impact on population viability analysis outcomes but uncertainty in other parameters (age of first reproduction, environmental variation in age-specific mortality, percent of females reproducing, clutch size) also contributed. Blanding's turtle demography varies geographically and incorporating this variation resulted in both mortality- and fecundity-related parameters affecting population viability analysis outcomes. Possibly, compensatory variation among demographic parameters allows for persistence across a wide range of parameter values. We found that extinction risk decreased and retention of genetic diversity increased rapidly with increasing initial population size. In the absence of catastrophes, demographic conservation goals could be met with a smaller initial population size than could genetic conservation goals; ≥20–50 adults were necessary for extinction risk <5%, whereas ≥50–110 adults were necessary to retain >95% of existing genetic diversity over 100 y. These thresholds shifted upward when catastrophes were included; ≥50–200 adults were necessary for extinction risk <5% and ≥110 to >200 adults were necessary to retain >95% of existing genetic diversity over 100 y. Impediments to Blanding's turtle conservation include an incomplete understanding of geographic covariation among demographic parameters, the large amount of effort necessary to estimate and monitor abundance, and uncertainty regarding the impacts of increasingly frequent extreme weather events.\",\"PeriodicalId\":49036,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management\",\"volume\":\" \",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.9000,\"publicationDate\":\"2021-06-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"7\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"93\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.3996/JFWM-20-063\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"环境科学与生态学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q4\",\"JCRName\":\"BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.3996/JFWM-20-063","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 7

摘要

预计美国联邦状态分类(保证,保证但排除,不保证),计划于2023年,我们提供了布兰丁龟的种群生存力分析,布兰丁龟是一种长寿,晚熟,半水生物种,在其整个范围内受到保护。我们提供了伊利诺斯州东北部人口长期研究的人口统计数据,并将这些数据作为可行性和敏感性分析的基础,重点是参数不确定性和地理参数变化。我们使用种群生存力分析来确定种群规模,以提供种群对随机干扰事件和灾难的弹性,并展示“可预见的未来”的替代定义如何影响状态决策。焦点种群的人口统计参数导致了乐观的种群预测(灭绝概率= 0%超过100年),但当纳入灾难或参数估计中的不确定性时(灭绝概率分别= 3%和16%),结果就不那么乐观了。特定年龄死亡率估计值的不确定性对种群活力分析结果的影响最大,但其他参数(首次繁殖年龄、特定年龄死亡率的环境变化、雌性繁殖百分比、卵窝大小)的不确定性也有影响。布兰丁海龟的人口统计在地理上存在差异,结合这种差异导致死亡率和繁殖力相关参数影响种群活力分析结果。可能,人口统计参数之间的补偿性变化允许跨越大范围参数值的持久性。研究发现,随着初始种群规模的增加,种群灭绝风险降低,遗传多样性保留率迅速提高。在没有灾难的情况下,人口保护目标可以用比遗传保护目标更小的初始种群规模来实现;≥20-50个成虫对100年以上95%的现有遗传多样性的灭绝风险是必需的。灭绝风险需要≥50-200只成虫,才能在100年内保留现有遗传多样性的95%。布兰丁海龟保护的障碍包括对人口统计学参数之间地理协变的不完全理解,需要大量的努力来估计和监测丰富度,以及对日益频繁的极端天气事件影响的不确定性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Blanding's Turtle Demography and Population Viability
In anticipation of U.S. federal status classification (warranted, warranted but precluded, not warranted), scheduled for 2023, we provide population viability analysis of the Blanding's turtle Emydoidea blandingii, a long-lived, late-maturing, semi-aquatic species of conservation concern throughout its range. We present demographic data from long-term study of a population in northeastern Illinois and use these data as the basis for viability and sensitivity analyses focused on parameter uncertainty and geographic parameter variation. We use population viability analysis to identify population sizes necessary to provide population resiliency to stochastic disturbance events and catastrophes, and demonstrate how alternative definitions of ‘foreseeable future' might affect status decisions. Demographic parameters within our focal population resulted in optimistic population projections (probability of extinction = 0% over 100 y) but results were less optimistic when catastrophes or uncertainty in parameter estimates were incorporated (probability of extinction = 3% and 16%, respectively). Uncertainty in estimates of age-specific mortality had the biggest impact on population viability analysis outcomes but uncertainty in other parameters (age of first reproduction, environmental variation in age-specific mortality, percent of females reproducing, clutch size) also contributed. Blanding's turtle demography varies geographically and incorporating this variation resulted in both mortality- and fecundity-related parameters affecting population viability analysis outcomes. Possibly, compensatory variation among demographic parameters allows for persistence across a wide range of parameter values. We found that extinction risk decreased and retention of genetic diversity increased rapidly with increasing initial population size. In the absence of catastrophes, demographic conservation goals could be met with a smaller initial population size than could genetic conservation goals; ≥20–50 adults were necessary for extinction risk <5%, whereas ≥50–110 adults were necessary to retain >95% of existing genetic diversity over 100 y. These thresholds shifted upward when catastrophes were included; ≥50–200 adults were necessary for extinction risk <5% and ≥110 to >200 adults were necessary to retain >95% of existing genetic diversity over 100 y. Impediments to Blanding's turtle conservation include an incomplete understanding of geographic covariation among demographic parameters, the large amount of effort necessary to estimate and monitor abundance, and uncertainty regarding the impacts of increasingly frequent extreme weather events.
求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management
Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION-ECOLOGY
CiteScore
1.60
自引率
0.00%
发文量
43
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management encourages submission of original, high quality, English-language scientific papers on the practical application and integration of science to conservation and management of native North American fish, wildlife, plants and their habitats in the following categories: Articles, Notes, Surveys and Issues and Perspectives. Papers that do not relate directly to native North American fish, wildlife plants or their habitats may be considered if they highlight species that are closely related to, or conservation issues that are germane to, those in North America.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信