财政负担代际分布的实证分析

IF 1.5 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

International Economic Review Pub Date : 2023-07-04 DOI:10.1111/iere.12654

Yuki Uchida, Tetsuo Ono

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究提出了一个世代重叠的政治经济学模型，以分析人口老龄化对财政政策形成的影响以及由此产生的代际财政负担分配。分析表明，人口老龄化导致老年人政治权力的增加，导致（i）劳动所得税收入与GDP的比率和债务与GDP的比例增加，以及（ii）对公共产品高度偏好的国家资本所得税收入占GDP的比率增加，但在对公共产品偏好程度较低的国家，这一比例最初有所下降，随后有所上升。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Generational Distribution of Fiscal Burdens: A Positive Analysis

This study presents an overlapping generations model to analyze the impact of population aging on fiscal policy and intergenerational fiscal burden. Aging populations incentivize governments to increase capital and labor income tax rates and the public debt-to-GDP ratio, consistent with OECD evidence. Our model-based simulation for Japan and the United States (2000–2070) reveals that Japan will experience higher labor income tax rates, a greater public debt-to-GDP ratio, and a lower government expenditure-to-GDP ratio compared to the United States. From 2040 onward, Japan is predicted to surpass the United States in terms of the capital tax rate.

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来源期刊

International Economic Review ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

2.60

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The International Economic Review was established in 1960 to provide a forum for modern quantitative economics. From its inception, the journal has tried to stimulate economic research around the world by publishing cutting edge papers in many areas of economics, including econometrics, economic theory, macro, and applied economics.