快速的气候变化需要变革性的政策和科学思维——一篇社论

IF 5.4 3区 工程技术 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS
J. Byrne, P. Lund, Job Taminiau
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引用次数: 1

摘要

政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)最近发布的《第六次气候变化评估报告》(AR6) (IPCC, 2021)揭示了一项日益艰巨的挑战:人类活动导致的世界气候变化的性质和速度正在以比组织最好的科学和研究报告更快的速度发生。例如,IPCC历次报告所记录的变化,往往在IPCC组织评估时就已经过时了。依赖于已知当前成本的政策设计存在严重问题,而这些政策几乎肯定会在未来出错。更令人担忧的是,建立在已知的社会和经济评估基础上的政策设计暗示,气候变化是一个渐进的过程。从现有的证据来看,这种假设显然不再成立。政策设计需要立即摆脱旨在平衡社会和经济成本和收益增量的方法,并面对“复合极端”的现实(IPCC最新报告中提出的一个概念)。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Rapid climate transformation requires transformative policy and science thinking—An editorial essay
The recent publication of the Sixth Assessment Report on Climate Change (AR6) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (IPCC, 2021) reveals an increasingly difficult challenge: the nature and rate of change in the world's climate due to human activity is occurring at a pace faster than the best science and research is organized to report. Successive IPCC reports, for example, document changes that often are out of date by the time it takes the Panel to organize an assessment. serious problems with policy designs that rely on known current costs and which will almost certainly be wrong tomorrow. And, even more concerning, policy designs built on the knowns of social and economic valuation imply that climate change is an incremental process. From the available evidence, this assumption is clearly no longer valid. Policy designs need to immediately move away from approaches meant to balance incremental social and economic costs and benefits and face the reality of “ compounding extremes ” (a concept introduced in the latest IPCC report).
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来源期刊
CiteScore
11.70
自引率
3.30%
发文量
42
期刊介绍: Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environmentis a new type of review journal covering all aspects of energy technology, security and environmental impact. Energy is one of the most critical resources for the welfare and prosperity of society. It also causes adverse environmental and societal effects, notably climate change which is the severest global problem in the modern age. Finding satisfactory solutions to the challenges ahead will need a linking of energy technology innovations, security, energy poverty, and environmental and climate impacts. The broad scope of energy issues demands collaboration between different disciplines of science and technology, and strong interaction between engineering, physical and life scientists, economists, sociologists and policy-makers.
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