非洲的经济增长、通货膨胀和失业:自回归分布滞后界限检验方法,1991-19

IF 1.4 Q3 ECONOMICS
Mario Gómez, Oluwasefunmi Eunice Irewole
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引用次数: 1

摘要

目的失业是包括非洲大陆在内的大多数国家面临的主要挑战之一。寻求如何减少失业、债务、通货膨胀并增加非洲大陆的国内生产总值(GDP)、外国直接投资(FDI)和总资本形成一直是各国政府、政策制定者和经济学家的议程,非洲的人口和失业率。设计/方法/方法1991年至2019年,从不同地区选择了29个非洲国家的最新面板数据集。这些国家是根据失业率、人口增长率和通货膨胀率选择的。应用Pesaran横截面相关性和面板单位根测试(补充Dickey–Fuller横截面和Im Pesaran Shin横截面)。此外,本工作还使用了面板自回归分布滞后(ARDL)模型(Bounds检验)和合并均值组(PMG)估计器。研究结果表明,从长远来看,经济增长、债务、劳动力和人口与失业率呈正相关。因此,这些变量的增加会导致选定的非洲国家的失业率增长增加。相比之下,从长远来看,通货膨胀、外国直接投资和资本形成总额与失业率呈负相关,这意味着这些变量的增加会降低选定非洲国家的失业率。研究局限性/含义这项研究有潜在的局限性,因为来自这些国家的一些数据不是最新的,而且数据中缺少一些年份。实际含义本研究有助于理解非洲经济中的失业和奥肯定律。这项研究表明,经济增长的增加会导致失业率的上升,而通货膨胀的增加会降低失业率。原创性/价值本文深入了解了增加和减少失业率的主要因素,供政府和政策制定者采取适当措施。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Economic growth, inflation and unemployment in Africa: an autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach, 1991–2019
PurposeUnemployment is one of the major challenges facing most countries, including Africa as a continent. Seeking how to reduce unemployment, debt, inflation and increase gross domestic product (GDP), foreign direct investment (FDI) and gross capital formation in the continent has been an agenda of governments, policy makers and economists to. This study examines the relationship between economic growth, inflation, debt, FDI, gross capital formation, labor force, population and unemployment in Africa.Design/methodology/approachAn updated panel dataset of 29 African countries was selected from different regions from 1991 to 2019. These countries were selected based on their unemployment, population growth and inflation rates. The Pesaran cross-sectional dependence and panel unit root test (the Dickey–Fuller cross-sectional supplemented and the Im-Pesaran-Shin cross-sectional) were applied. Further, the panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model (Bounds test) and pooled mean group (PMG) estimator were utilized in this work.FindingsThis shows that economic growth, debt, labor force and population have a positive relationship with unemployment in the long run. Therefore, an increase in these variables generates an increase in the selected African countries' unemployment growth. In contrast, inflation, FDI and gross capital formation have a negative relationship with unemployment in the long run, which implies that an increase in these variables reduces unemployment in the selected African countries.Research limitations/implicationsThis study has potential limitations because some data from the countries are not up to date and some years are missing from the data.Practical implicationsThis study contributes to understanding unemployment and Okun's law in the African economy. This study shows that an increase in economic growth leads to a rise in unemployment, while an increase in inflation leads to a decrease in unemployment.Originality/valueThis paper provides an insight into the major factors that increase and reduces unemployment for government and policy marker to take the adequate measure.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
3.20
自引率
7.70%
发文量
41
期刊介绍: African Journal of Economic and Management Studies (AJEMS) advances both theoretical and empirical research, informs policies and practices, and improves understanding of how economic and business decisions shape the lives of Africans. AJEMS is a multidisciplinary journal and welcomes papers from all the major disciplines in economics, business and management studies.
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