基础设施支出与区域金融发展:来自东非“一带一路”倡议国家的证据

IF 1.1 4区社会学 Q2 AREA STUDIES

Journal of Asian and African Studies Pub Date : 2023-08-09 DOI:10.1177/00219096231188944

Ibrahim Sakouba, Zhang Chen

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文在三元向量自回归框架下研究了2007-2017年东非(包括埃塞俄比亚、肯尼亚、坦桑尼亚、卢旺达和乌干达)基础设施支出与区域金融发展之间的因果关系。我们使用世界银行的全球金融发展数据库。我们通过将“一带一路”倡议支出作为一个额外变量，扩展了传统上公认的金融发展比例。实证策略包括使用协整和矢量误差校正方法应用格兰杰因果关系检验。我们发现了双向格兰杰因果关系的证据:(1)“一带一路”支出与区域金融发展之间;(2)“一带一路”支出与区域增长之间。这些发现表明，基础设施支出的增加，特别是在交通、电信和能源方面的支出，对东非地区的金融发展产生了积极影响，并增加了该地区无银行账户人口的包容性。

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Infrastructure Spending and the Regional Financial Development: Evidence from the Eastern African Belt and Road Initiative Countries

This paper examines the causal relationship between infrastructure spending and regional financial development in Eastern Africa, including Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda and Uganda, for 2007–2017 within a trivariate vector autoregressive framework. We use the Global Financial Development Database from the World Bank. We extend the conventionally accepted ratio of financial development by including the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) spending as an additional variable. The empirical strategy involves applying the Granger causality tests using the cointegration and vector error correction methodology. We find evidence of a two-way Granger causality: (1) between the BRI spending and regional financial development and (2) between the BRI spending and regional growth. These findings suggest that an increase in infrastructure spending, particularly in transport, telecommunications and energy, positively affects regional financial development in Eastern Africa and increases the unbanked population’s inclusion in the region.

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来源期刊

Journal of Asian and African Studies AREA STUDIES-

CiteScore

2.70

自引率

10.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of Asian and African Studies (JAAS) was founded in 1965 to further research and study on Asia and Africa. JAAS is a peer reviewed journal of area studies recognised for consistent scholarly contributions to cutting-edge issues and debates. The journal welcomes articles, research notes, and book reviews that focus on the dynamics of global change and development of Asian and African nations, societies, cultures, and the global community. Published articles cover: -development and change -technology and communication -globalization -public administration -politics -economy -education -health, wealth, and welfare -poverty and growth -humanities -sociology -political science -linguistics -economics JAAS adheres to a double-blind reviewing policy in which the identity of both the reviewer and author are always concealed from both parties. Decisions on manuscripts will be taken as rapidly as possible. However, while it is hoped that a decision can be made in 6-8 weeks, the refereeing process makes it impossible to predict the length of time that will be required to process any given manuscript.