High-resolution peak ground acceleration modeling using geographic information systems: A case study of the potentially active Central Cebu Fault System, Philippines

The heavily populated Cebu Island is cut by the Central Cebu Fault System (CCFS). While the CCFS has not produced any M_W > 5.0 earthquakes in the past century, recent strong earthquakes in the adjacent islands have brought attention to the seismic hazards in the region. Fault properties such as strike, dip, slip direction, and surface trace length were determined based on literature review, fieldwork, and analysis of geomorphic features. Empirical relations were utilized to estimate down-dip width and magnitude. The gathered data were used to create a three-dimensional model of the four major faults in the CCFS: Balamban Fault, Central Highland Fault, Uling-Masaba Fault, and Lutac-Jaclupan Fault. The 3D model was used to generate peak ground acceleration maps of central Cebu, should an earthquake occur along any of the major faults. Site corrections were made based on the seismic velocity of the upper 30 m of the subsurface. The major faults are estimated to be capable of generating M_W 6.4 to 7.1 earthquakes. Worst-case scenarios in densely populated areas show 0.40 to 0.70 g of PGA, suggesting the potential for severe damage in central Cebu. We explored the advantages of using raster mathematics in a GIS platform for calculating and presenting ground motion. These advantages include rapid calculations for tens of millions of points, reducing the effects of interpolation artifacts in final map products. This study emphasizes the importance of detailed structural, geological, and geomorphological data in modeling seismic hazards. Further investigations on the seismogenesis of the CCFS segments are recommended.