人民币实际汇率与美国对华实际贸易差额：长期协整与短期动态分析

IF 1.3 Q3 ECONOMICS

International Trade Journal Pub Date : 2021-12-06 DOI:10.1080/08853908.2021.2008282

A. Islam

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引用次数: 2

摘要

摘要本文采用一个新的全球化增广实证模型，考察了人民币兑美元实际汇率在长期和短期内对美国对华贸易逆差的影响。长期估计是使用Johansen Juselius协整方法以及相应的短期动态获得的。利用样本量为45年的最长可用年度时间序列数据进行实证检验。研究证实了长期均衡的存在，也证实了人民币兑美元实际汇率的作用与传统理论相一致。实际收入和全球化也发挥了重要作用。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Yuan-Dollar Real Exchange Rate and the U.S. Real Trade Balance with China: Long-Run Cointegration and Short-Run Dynamic Analysis

ABSTRACT This article examines the impact of the yuan-dollar real exchange rate on the U.S. trade deficit with China in the long run as well as in the short run using a novel globalization-augmented empirical model. The long-run estimates are obtained using the Johansen-Juselius cointegration method along with the corresponding short-run dynamics. The longest available annual time-series data with a sample size of 45 years is utilized to conduct the empirical tests. The study finds confirmation of the long-run equilibrium and that the real yuan-dollar real exchange rate plays a strong role consistent with traditional theory. Real income and globalization played strong roles as well.

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来源期刊

International Trade Journal Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics, Econometrics and Finance (all)

CiteScore

1.90

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The International Trade Journal is a refereed interdisciplinary journal published for the enhancement of research in international trade. Its editorial objective is to provide a forum for the scholarly exchange of research findings in,and significant empirical, conceptual, or theoretical contributions to the field. The International Trade Journal welcomes contributions from researchers in academia as well as practitioners of international trade broadly defined.