COVID-19大流行对波兰和斯洛伐克道路交通事故预测的影响

IF 1.5 Q2 ENGINEERING, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Open Engineering Pub Date : 2022-01-01 DOI:10.1515/eng-2022-0370

M. Jurković, Piotr Gorzelańczyk, T. Kalina, J. Jaroš, M. Mohanty

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引用次数: 6

摘要

摘要新冠肺炎大流行显著影响了运输部门的表现及其总体强度。减少流动性对道路交通事故有重大影响。本研究的目的是预测波兰和斯洛伐克的道路交通事故数量，并评估新冠肺炎疫情如何影响其趋势。为此，分析了波兰和斯洛伐克在选定相关时期的数据。根据过去的实际数据，考虑到两种情况，对未来进行了预测 – 一个没有大流行的影响，另一个有大流行的影响。使用选定的与线性趋势相关的时间序列模型（Holt和Winters方法）和指数模型预测波兰的事故数量。以斯洛伐克为例，使用无趋势模型和指数模型来预测交通事故数量。研究结果显示，疫情导致波兰和斯洛伐克的交通事故数量分别减少了31%和33%。这是一个显著的下降，但它线性地取决于影响人口流动的限制措施。因此，在欧洲范围内也可能出现类似的趋势。

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Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on road traffic accident forecasting in Poland and Slovakia

Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic significantly affected the performance of the transport sector and its overall intensity. Reducing mobility has a major impact on road traffic accidents. The aim of this study is to forecast the number of road traffic accidents in Poland and Slovakia and to assess how the COVID-19 pandemic affected its trend. For this purpose, data for Poland and Slovakia in the selected relevant period were analyzed. Based on actual data from the past, a forecast was made for the future considering two scenarios – one where there is no effect of pandemic, and another with effect of pandemic. Forecasting the number of accidents in Poland was carried out using selected time series models related to linear trend (Holt and Winters method) and the exponential model. In the case of Slovakia, the model without trend and the exponential model were used to forecast the number of traffic accidents. The results of the research show that the pandemic caused a decrease in the number of traffic accidents in Poland by 31% and in Slovakia by 33%. This is a significant decline, but it is linearly dependent on restrictive measures that affect the mobility of the population. A similar trend can therefore be expected on a European scale.

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来源期刊

Open Engineering ENGINEERING, MULTIDISCIPLINARY-

CiteScore

3.90

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

30 weeks

期刊介绍： Open Engineering publishes research results of wide interest in emerging interdisciplinary and traditional engineering fields, including: electrical and computer engineering, civil and environmental engineering, mechanical and aerospace engineering, material science and engineering. The journal is designed to facilitate the exchange of innovative and interdisciplinary ideas between researchers from different countries. Open Engineering is a peer-reviewed, English language journal. Researchers from non-English speaking regions are provided with free language correction by scientists who are native speakers. Additionally, each published article is widely promoted to researchers working in the same field.