为不确定的未来创建灵活的计划:从探索性情景到具有实际期权的适应性计划

IF 3.4 2区 经济学 Q1 REGIONAL & URBAN PLANNING
Thomas Machiels, R. Goodspeed, T. Compernolle, T. Coppens
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引用次数: 1

摘要

情景规划越来越多地用于管理不确定性,但这种规划往往难以影响决策制定并帮助社区驾驭多种未来。本文提出了一个规划实践框架,该框架整合了情景规划和实物期权理论,以确定使计划或项目响应多种未来的适应方案。在文献内容分析和专家访谈的基础上,通过一个示范案例“规划湾区2050和Link21”来解释该框架。研究结果表明,探索性情景通过在考虑未来时明确不确定性,为实物期权推理和适应性规划创造了机会。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Creating Flexible Plans for an Uncertain Future: From Exploratory Scenarios to Adaptive Plans With Real Options
Abstract Scenario planning is increasingly used to manage uncertainty, but such planning often struggles to influence decision making and help communities navigate multiple futures. This article proposes a framework for planning practice that integrates scenario planning and real option theory to identify adaptation options that make plans or projects responsive to multiple futures. The framework is explained through a demonstration case, Plan Bay Area 2050 and Link21, based on document content analysis and expert interviews. The findings show that exploratory scenarios generate opportunities for real options reasoning and adaptive planning, by making uncertainties explicit when thinking about the future.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.40
自引率
5.10%
发文量
35
期刊介绍: Planning Theory & Practice provides an international focus for the development of theory and practice in spatial planning and a forum to promote the policy dimensions of space and place. Published four times a year in conjunction with the Royal Town Planning Institute, London, it publishes original articles and review papers from both academics and practitioners with the aim of encouraging more effective, two-way communication between theory and practice. The Editors invite robustly researched papers which raise issues at the leading edge of planning theory and practice, and welcome papers on controversial subjects. Contributors in the early stages of their academic careers are encouraged, as are rejoinders to items previously published.
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