重新审视温度敏感性:南极降水如何随温度变化?

IF 4.4 2区 地球科学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL
Cryosphere Pub Date : 2023-07-03 DOI:10.5194/tc-17-2563-2023
Lena Nicola, D. Notz, R. Winkelmann
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引用次数: 0

摘要

摘要随着全球变暖的加剧,南极洲的降雪量预计将增加,这可能会抵消甚至暂时过度补偿冰流量和融化增加造成的冰盖质量损失。因此,对于海平面预测来说,了解决定南极洲降雪变化的过程至关重要。在这里,我们重新审视了南极温度变化和降水变化之间的关系,识别并解释了区域差异以及与基于克劳修斯-克拉珀龙关系的理论方法的偏差。分析全球(CMIP6,耦合模型相互比较项目第6阶段)和区域(RACMO2.3)模型预测的最新估计,我们发现平均增长5.5 % 南极洲每升温一度的年降水量,最小灵敏度为2 % Siple海岸附近的K−1,最大灵敏度> 10 % 在南极东部高原地区的K−1。这一大范围可以用主要的气候条件来解释,当地温度决定了克劳修斯-克拉佩龙的敏感性,而在一些地区,沿海风的盛行抵消了这种敏感性。我们比较了推导灵敏度因子的不同方法,在某些情况下,这可能导致同一模型的灵敏度变化高达7个百分点。重要的是,发现局部敏感性因素强烈依赖于变暖水平,这表明一些基于这些敏感性因素得出的参数估计降水量的冰盖模型可能高估了变暖引起的降雪变化,特别是在高排放情况下。这将对本世纪及以后的南极海平面预测产生影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Revisiting temperature sensitivity: how does Antarctic precipitation change with temperature?
Abstract. With progressing global warming, snowfall in Antarctica is expected to increase, which could counteract or even temporarily overcompensate increased ice-sheet mass losses caused by increased ice discharge and melting. For sea-level projections it is therefore vital to understand the processes determining snowfall changes in Antarctica. Here we revisit the relationship between Antarctic temperature changes and precipitation changes, identifying and explaining regional differences and deviations from the theoretical approach based on the Clausius–Clapeyron relationship. Analysing the latest estimates from global (CMIP6, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) and regional (RACMO2.3) model projections, we find an average increase of 5.5 % in annual precipitation over Antarctica per degree of warming, with a minimum sensitivity of 2 % K−1 near Siple Coast and a maximum sensitivity of > 10 % K−1 at the East Antarctic plateau region. This large range can be explained by the prevailing climatic conditions, with local temperatures determining the Clausius–Clapeyron sensitivity that is counteracted in some regions by the prevalence of the coastal wind regime. We compare different approaches of deriving the sensitivity factor, which in some cases can lead to sensitivity changes of up to 7 percentage points for the same model. Importantly, local sensitivity factors are found to be strongly dependent on the warming level, suggesting that some ice-sheet models which base their precipitation estimates on parameterisations derived from these sensitivity factors might overestimate warming-induced snowfall changes, particularly in high-emission scenarios. This would have consequences for Antarctic sea-level projections for this century and beyond.
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来源期刊
Cryosphere
Cryosphere GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL-GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
CiteScore
8.70
自引率
17.30%
发文量
240
审稿时长
4-8 weeks
期刊介绍: The Cryosphere (TC) is a not-for-profit international scientific journal dedicated to the publication and discussion of research articles, short communications, and review papers on all aspects of frozen water and ground on Earth and on other planetary bodies. The main subject areas are the following: ice sheets and glaciers; planetary ice bodies; permafrost and seasonally frozen ground; seasonal snow cover; sea ice; river and lake ice; remote sensing, numerical modelling, in situ and laboratory studies of the above and including studies of the interaction of the cryosphere with the rest of the climate system.
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