Impact of tides on calving patterns at Kronebreen, Svalbard – insights from three-dimensional ice dynamical modelling

Abstract. Understanding calving processes and their controls is of importance for reducing uncertainty in sea level rise estimates. The impact of tidal fluctuations and frontal melt on calving patterns has been researched through both modelling and observational studies but remains uncertain and may vary from glacier to glacier. In this study, we isolate various different impacts of tidal fluctuations on a glacier terminus to understand their influence on the timing of calving events in a model of Kronebreen, Svalbard, for the duration of 1 month. In addition, we impose a simplified frontal melt parameterisation onto the calving front in order to allow for an undercut to develop over the course of the simulations. We find that calving events show a tidal signal when there is a small or no undercut, but, after a critical point, undercut-driven calving becomes dominant and drowns out the tidal signal. However, the relationship is complex, and large calving events show a tidal signal even with a large modelled undercut. The modelled undercut sizes are then compared to observational profiles, showing that undercuts of up to ca. 25 m are plausible but with a more complex geometry being evident in observations than that captured in the model. These findings highlight the complex interactions occurring at the calving front of Kronebreen and suggest further observational data and modelling work is needed to fully understand the hierarchy of controls on calving.