A U.S. Perspective on Deterrence and Geopolitics in Space

Theories of deterrence and geopolitics have been applied to space activities for many decades, with linkages to nuclear competition during the Cold War. Despite common usage in U.S. policy documents and statements, it is not always clear how the concepts of deterrence and geopolitics should be applied. This article reviews deterrence theory as applied to space, to include the challenge of China, and the increasing use of commercial space assets for military purposes. Both topics are of interest to policy-makers and hence their inclusion. This is followed by a discussion of geopolitics in space, to include the works of Everett C. Dolman, Daniel Deudney, and Bleddyn Bowen, as well as the nascent application of critical geopolitical perspectives to space. The article observes that the international approach being taken by the United States in space does not align with the theories of either Dolman or Deudney. On the other hand, current U.S. military space doctrine is consistent with the propositions of Bowen, with the U.S. Space Command focused on supporting terrestrial combatant commands as opposed to controlling the space domain per se. Applications of deterrence and geopolitics to cooperation and competition in space are necessarily grounded in material realities, e.g., geography, military forces, technologies, and economic power, but the beneficial development of space requires both State power and international constraints on that power. For the United States, and ideally all spacefaring States, the successful application of deterrence and geopolitics to the exploration and use of space would be a peaceful and stable space environment in which cooperation among likeminded States would flourish even as adversarial States continued to pursue their own, competing, interests in space.