影响雪灾事故发生的环境因素的时间不稳定性分析——基于均值和方差异质性的随机参数危险持续时间模型

IF 12.5 1区 工程技术 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH
Jiajun Pang , Adam Krathaus , Irina Benedyk , Sheikh Shahriar Ahmed , Panagiotis Ch. Anastasopoulos
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引用次数: 19

摘要

本文介绍了降雪开始到机动车事故发生之间的时间,作为评价降雪期间机动车安全的一种新措施。本文利用2017年至2020年期间纽约州降雪期间发生的事故的详细信息,探索不同因素对降雪开始和事故发生之间时间的加速或延迟影响。为此,采用了基于风险的持续时间建模框架,并考虑了多层未观察到的异质性,引入了具有均值和方差异质性的随机参数方法-这是作者所知的第一次。通过一系列系统似然比检验考察各因素在研究期间的时间稳定性,发现各因素在研究期间没有时间稳定性。因此,对不同年份的模型进行了估计。结果表明,影响降雪开始时间和机动车事故发生时间的因素有:能见度条件;混凝土路段;路面状况指数(PCI)较高路段;双向4车道以上的道路;靠近巴士站的地点;寒冷的冬季(特别是2月份);降雪前地面上的积雪量;斜坡:斜坡的存在;降雪间隔时间过长(特别是在大雪和能见度差的情况下)。本文的研究结果有望为冬季维护团队、运输系统操作员和用户提供有关降雪期间事故易发时期和地点的见解。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
A temporal instability analysis of environmental factors affecting accident occurrences during snow events: The random parameters hazard-based duration model with means and variances heterogeneity

The present paper introduces the time between the start of a snowfall and the occurrence of a motor vehicle accident as a novel measure for evaluating motor vehicle safety during snowfalls. Detailed information of accidents that occurred during snowfalls between 2017 and 2020 in the state of New York are used to explore the accelerating or delaying effect of different factors on the time between the start of a snowfall and the occurrence of an accident. To that end, the hazard-based duration modeling framework is employed, and to account for multiple layers of unobserved heterogeneity, a random parameters with heterogeneity in means and variances approach is introduced – for this first time, to the authors’ knowledge. The temporal stability of the factors across the study period is investigated through conducting a series of systematic likelihood ratio tests, and the factors are not found to be temporally stable across the study years. Hence, separate year-specific models are estimated. The results show that a number of factors affect the time between the start of a snowfall and the occurrence of a motor vehicle accident such as: visibility conditions; concrete road sections; road sections with high Pavement Condition Index (PCI); roads with more than 4 lanes in both directions; locations in close proximity to bus stations; the period during the cold winter months (specifically February); the amount of accumulated snow on the ground before snowfall; the presence of ramps; and long time intervals between snowfalls (especially for heavy snow conditions and adverse visibility conditions). The findings from this paper are anticipated to offer insights to winter maintenance teams, transportation system operators, and users regarding accident-prone periods and locations during snowfalls.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
22.10
自引率
34.10%
发文量
35
审稿时长
24 days
期刊介绍: Analytic Methods in Accident Research is a journal that publishes articles related to the development and application of advanced statistical and econometric methods in studying vehicle crashes and other accidents. The journal aims to demonstrate how these innovative approaches can provide new insights into the factors influencing the occurrence and severity of accidents, thereby offering guidance for implementing appropriate preventive measures. While the journal primarily focuses on the analytic approach, it also accepts articles covering various aspects of transportation safety (such as road, pedestrian, air, rail, and water safety), construction safety, and other areas where human behavior, machine failures, or system failures lead to property damage or bodily harm.
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