全球经济的火车头发生了什么,或者中国复苏的神话

M. Reshetnikova, Irina A. Pugacheva
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引用次数: 0

摘要

2019冠状病毒病大流行给所有经济体造成了无法弥补的损害。全球经济的主要参与者应对其后果是唯一的预期。然而,世界领先的组织一直在鼓吹克服中国的危机。研究的目的是分析中国经济的现状,并回答是否已经克服了所有危机现象的问题。作为研究的一部分,作者分析了GDP、债务水平、国内需求水平、金融市场和MA市场的活动、中国的技术和社会政策以及贸易结构等指标。定量指标分析采用对比与分类相结合、媒体扫描、众包相结合的方法。信息库的基础是官方机构在Сhina、世界银行(World Bank)、国际货币基金组织(imf)等网站出版的年度参考书,以及专门研究中国经济的国际出版物的统计数据。分析显示,股市、创新投资市场和银行业都存在触发情况。信用体系的状况也是一个值得关注的问题。作者已经证明,有关中国经济快速复苏的热情言论,与其说是既成事实,不如说是令人鼓舞的神话。今天,中国刚刚从疫情危机中恢复过来。中国能否像2008年那样,再次成为全球经济增长的火车头?这个问题的答案仍然没有定论。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
What’s happening to the locomotive of global economy, or The myths about the recovery of China
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused irreparable damage to all economies. Coping with the consequences by the leading players in the global economy is only expected. However, the worlds leading organizations have been trumpeting about overcoming the crisis in China. The aim of the research is to analyze the current state of the Chinese economy and answer the question whether it has overcome all the crisis phenomena. As part of the study, the authors analyzed indicators such as GDP, debt level, level of domestic demand, activity in the financial market and the MA market, as well as technological and social policies of China and the structure of trade. For the analysis of quantitative indicators, a combination of comparison and classification methods, media scanning, and crowdsourcing was used. The information base was grounded on annual reference books published by official institutions in Сhina, World Bank, International Monetary Fund, statistical data from international publications devoted to Chinese economy. The analysis showed the presence of trigger situations in the stock market, in the market for innovative investments and the banking sector. The state of the credit system is also a matter of concern. The authors have proven that enthusiastic statements about the rapid recovery of the Chinese economy are more an encouraging myth than a fait accompli. Today, China is only at the beginning of its recovery from the crisis caused by the pandemic. Will it be able to become the locomotive of global economic growth again, as in 2008? The answer to this question remains open.
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