基于EURO-CORDEX模拟的喀尔巴阡山大区热力和降水气候指数的预测值

IF 1.4 Q2 GEOGRAPHY
N. Skarbit, J. Unger, T. Gál
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引用次数: 1

摘要

由于我们的气候处于快速变化阶段,获得有关基本气候参数和指标的区域模式的信息至关重要。EURO-CORDEX项目提供了高质量的区域气候模型输出,但这些原始数据集不便于在更广泛的地球科学研究中应用。据作者所知,中欧,特别是更广泛的喀尔巴阡山地区,缺乏关于基本气候参数和指数的已发表空间信息,因此本研究的基本目的是填补这一空白。该研究介绍了21世纪喀尔巴阡盆地地区日气温、降水量和各种气候指数的未来趋势。这些指数是使用EURO-CORDEX模型模拟的未来时间段(2021–2050、2071–2100)和排放情景(RCP4.5、RCP8.5)的多模型平均温度和降水数据计算的。这些指数呈现了热负荷、能源需求以及极端降水和干旱特征的未来趋势。结果表明,温度升高明显,热负荷和能源需求量化指标均随温度变化趋势。然而,在有降水的情况下,这种趋势很难评估。降水量和相关指数的变化可以认为很小,并且出现在区域内。喀尔巴阡盆地未来的变化最为显著,但在接下来的几十年里,整个研究区域都面临着至关重要的变化。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Projected values of thermal and precipitation climate indices for the broader Carpathian region based on EURO-CORDEX simulations
Since our climate is in a rapid changing phase, it is crucial to get information about the regional patterns of basic climatic parameters and indices. The EURO-CORDEX project provides high quality regional climate model outputs, but these raw datasets are not convenient for the application in wider geoscience studies. According to the authors’ knowledge, there is a lack in published spatial information about basic climate parameters and indices in Central-Europe and especially in the broader Carpathian region therefore the basic aim of this study to fill this gap. The study presents the future trends in daily air temperature and precipitation and various climatic indices in the broader Carpathian Basin region during the 21st century. The indices are calculated using multi-model average temperature and precipitation data from EURO-CORDEX model simulations for the future time periods (2021–2050, 2071–2100) and emission scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP8.5). The indices present the future trends of the heat load, energy demand as well as extreme precipitation and drought characteristics. Based on the results the temperature increase is obvious and the heat load and energy demand quantifying indices follow the temperature trend. However, the trend is difficult to evaluate in case of precipitation. The changes in the precipitation and the related indices can be considered small and appear within the regions. The future changes are the most considerable in the Carpathian Basin, but the entire examined region faces crucial changes in the following decades.
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来源期刊
Hungarian Geographical Bulletin
Hungarian Geographical Bulletin Social Sciences-Geography, Planning and Development
CiteScore
3.20
自引率
0.00%
发文量
24
审稿时长
24 weeks
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