基于数据驱动PV区间估计的电热一体化能源系统鲁棒优化

IF 1.6 Q4 ENERGY & FUELS
Tao Xu, Zuozheng Liu, Lingxu Guo, He Meng, Rujing Wang, Mengchao Li, Shuqi Cai
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引用次数: 0

摘要

短期区间估计能够有效、准确地量化可再生能源的不确定性,准确表征电-热一体化能源系统鲁棒优化中不确定性变量的波动范围,对于可再生能源为主的新能源系统的可靠、灵活运行具有重要意义。作者提出了一个多元数据驱动的光伏短期功率区间预测模型,该模型由多层组成,包括一维卷积层、超轻量级子空间注意机制(ULSAM)、双向长短期记忆(BiLSTM)、分位数回归(QR)和核密度估计(KDE)。一维卷积层和ULSAM可以从数据中提取序列特征并突出显示关键信息;BiLSTM对时间序列数据进行双向处理,传递历史信息;QR和KDE模型生成具有给定置信水平的区间预测。基于所提出的区间估计,可以建立一个细化的PV不确定性集,并利用最小-最大-最小算法对EHIES进行鲁棒优化调度。仿真结果证明了估计的准确性和对各种天气情景的适应性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Robust optimisation of electricity-heating integrated energy system based on data-driven PV interval estimation

Robust optimisation of electricity-heating integrated energy system based on data-driven PV interval estimation

Short-term interval estimation can effectively and precisely quantify the uncertainties of renewable energy, accurately represent the range of fluctuations of uncertain variables in robust optimisation of electricity-heating integrated energy system (EHIES) and it is getting crucial for reliable and flexible operation of renewable dominated new energy systems. The authors present a multivariate data-driven short-term PV power interval prediction model that consists of multiple layers, including one-dimensional convolutional layer, ultra-lightweight subspace attention mechanism (ULSAM), bidirectional long and short-term memory (BiLSTM), quantile regression (QR) and kernel density estimation (KDE). The one-dimensional convolutional layer and ULSAM can extract sequential features and highlight key information from the data; the BiLSTM processes time series data in both directions and conveys historical information; the QR and KDE models generate interval prediction with a given confidence level. Based on the proposed interval estimation, a refined PV uncertainty set can be established and adopted by robust optimal scheduling of EHIES utilising min-max-min algorithm. The simulation results have demonstrated the estimation accuracy and adaptability to various weather scenarios.

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来源期刊
IET Energy Systems Integration
IET Energy Systems Integration Engineering-Engineering (miscellaneous)
CiteScore
5.90
自引率
8.30%
发文量
29
审稿时长
11 weeks
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