Tao Xu, Zuozheng Liu, Lingxu Guo, He Meng, Rujing Wang, Mengchao Li, Shuqi Cai
{"title":"基于数据驱动PV区间估计的电热一体化能源系统鲁棒优化","authors":"Tao Xu, Zuozheng Liu, Lingxu Guo, He Meng, Rujing Wang, Mengchao Li, Shuqi Cai","doi":"10.1049/esi2.12114","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Short-term interval estimation can effectively and precisely quantify the uncertainties of renewable energy, accurately represent the range of fluctuations of uncertain variables in robust optimisation of electricity-heating integrated energy system (EHIES) and it is getting crucial for reliable and flexible operation of renewable dominated new energy systems. The authors present a multivariate data-driven short-term PV power interval prediction model that consists of multiple layers, including one-dimensional convolutional layer, ultra-lightweight subspace attention mechanism (ULSAM), bidirectional long and short-term memory (BiLSTM), quantile regression (QR) and kernel density estimation (KDE). The one-dimensional convolutional layer and ULSAM can extract sequential features and highlight key information from the data; the BiLSTM processes time series data in both directions and conveys historical information; the QR and KDE models generate interval prediction with a given confidence level. Based on the proposed interval estimation, a refined PV uncertainty set can be established and adopted by robust optimal scheduling of EHIES utilising min-max-min algorithm. The simulation results have demonstrated the estimation accuracy and adaptability to various weather scenarios.</p>","PeriodicalId":33288,"journal":{"name":"IET Energy Systems Integration","volume":"5 4","pages":"462-476"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6000,"publicationDate":"2023-08-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://ietresearch.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1049/esi2.12114","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Robust optimisation of electricity-heating integrated energy system based on data-driven PV interval estimation\",\"authors\":\"Tao Xu, Zuozheng Liu, Lingxu Guo, He Meng, Rujing Wang, Mengchao Li, Shuqi Cai\",\"doi\":\"10.1049/esi2.12114\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>Short-term interval estimation can effectively and precisely quantify the uncertainties of renewable energy, accurately represent the range of fluctuations of uncertain variables in robust optimisation of electricity-heating integrated energy system (EHIES) and it is getting crucial for reliable and flexible operation of renewable dominated new energy systems. The authors present a multivariate data-driven short-term PV power interval prediction model that consists of multiple layers, including one-dimensional convolutional layer, ultra-lightweight subspace attention mechanism (ULSAM), bidirectional long and short-term memory (BiLSTM), quantile regression (QR) and kernel density estimation (KDE). The one-dimensional convolutional layer and ULSAM can extract sequential features and highlight key information from the data; the BiLSTM processes time series data in both directions and conveys historical information; the QR and KDE models generate interval prediction with a given confidence level. Based on the proposed interval estimation, a refined PV uncertainty set can be established and adopted by robust optimal scheduling of EHIES utilising min-max-min algorithm. The simulation results have demonstrated the estimation accuracy and adaptability to various weather scenarios.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":33288,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"IET Energy Systems Integration\",\"volume\":\"5 4\",\"pages\":\"462-476\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-08-29\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://ietresearch.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1049/esi2.12114\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"IET Energy Systems Integration\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1049/esi2.12114\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q4\",\"JCRName\":\"ENERGY & FUELS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"IET Energy Systems Integration","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1049/esi2.12114","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"ENERGY & FUELS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Robust optimisation of electricity-heating integrated energy system based on data-driven PV interval estimation
Short-term interval estimation can effectively and precisely quantify the uncertainties of renewable energy, accurately represent the range of fluctuations of uncertain variables in robust optimisation of electricity-heating integrated energy system (EHIES) and it is getting crucial for reliable and flexible operation of renewable dominated new energy systems. The authors present a multivariate data-driven short-term PV power interval prediction model that consists of multiple layers, including one-dimensional convolutional layer, ultra-lightweight subspace attention mechanism (ULSAM), bidirectional long and short-term memory (BiLSTM), quantile regression (QR) and kernel density estimation (KDE). The one-dimensional convolutional layer and ULSAM can extract sequential features and highlight key information from the data; the BiLSTM processes time series data in both directions and conveys historical information; the QR and KDE models generate interval prediction with a given confidence level. Based on the proposed interval estimation, a refined PV uncertainty set can be established and adopted by robust optimal scheduling of EHIES utilising min-max-min algorithm. The simulation results have demonstrated the estimation accuracy and adaptability to various weather scenarios.