Rebel Successor Parties and Their Electoral Performance in the Balkans

Abstract When do rebel groups transform into successful political parties? I argue that rebel successor party electoral performance is strongly shaped by rebel social bases and organizational cohesion. When rebels recruit more from the civilian population and control more territory, they are more likely to have a postwar base of party members and attract nonrebel elites to join their party. I also argue, however, that cohesive rebel organizations adapt more easily to the challenges of party building. Two key mechanisms link cohesion to success. First, cohesive rebel organizations are more likely to preserve their wartime social bases and avoid rebel leader splits and defections to other parties. Second, cohesive groups are better suited to incorporate nonrebel elites and pursue electoral strategies that appeal to noncombatant voters. This article examines the validity of this theory in a comparative study of the party-building efforts of ethnic Albanian rebel organizations in the Balkans.