我们呆在家里是为了让曲线变平吗?

IF 3.1 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
James Sears, J. M. Villas-Boas, Vasco Villas-Boas, S. Villas-Boas
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引用次数: 41

摘要

最近新冠肺炎在美国的传播促使各州共同努力,通过采取居家令来“拉平曲线”,鼓励个人减少旅行并保持社交距离。将旅行活动和人类接触率变化的数据与国家政策制定时间相结合,我们首先描述了伴随新冠肺炎传播的流动模式的总体变化。我们发现,有证据表明,在通过任何全州范围的授权之前,全国范围内的流动性和人际交往急剧下降。然后,使用差异以及加权和未加权事件研究方法,我们分离出直接归因于全州授权的减少部分。一旦各州通过授权,我们估计与新冠肺炎疫情前的基线水平相比,授权导致的进一步下降将在2.1至7.0个百分点之间。虽然强制令州的居民很快就恢复了以前的商业访问模式,但在观察到的强制令期间,对旅行距离和人员接触率的影响一直存在。我们对早期流动性减少的估计以及对全州居家政策的回应,为流动行为的持续变化和各州未来的重新开放传达了重要的政策含义。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Are We #Stayinghome to Flatten the Curve?
The recent spread of COVID-19 across the United States led to concerted efforts by states to “flatten the curve” through the adoption of stay-at-home mandates that encouraged individuals to reduce travel and maintain social distance. Combining data on changes in travel activity and human encounter rates with state policy adoption timing, we first characterize the overall changes in mobility patterns that accompanied the spread of COVID-19. We find evidence of dramatic nationwide declines in mobility and human encounters prior to adoption of any statewide mandates. Then, using difference-in-differences along with weighted and unweighted event study methods, we isolate the portion of those reductions directly attributable to statewide mandates. Once states adopt a mandate, we estimate further mandate-induced declines of between 2.1 and 7.0 percentage points relative to pre-COVID-19 baseline levels. While residents of mandate states soon returned to prior business visitation patterns, the impacts on distances traveled and human encounter rates persisted throughout the observed mandate periods. Our estimates of early mobility reductions and the responses to statewide stay-at-home policies convey important policy implications for the persistence of mobility behavior changes and states’ future reopenings.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
4.30
自引率
2.70%
发文量
34
期刊介绍: The American Journal of Health Economics (AJHE) provides a forum for the in-depth analysis of health care markets and individual health behaviors. The articles appearing in AJHE are authored by scholars from universities, private research organizations, government, and industry. Subjects of interest include competition among private insurers, hospitals, and physicians; impacts of public insurance programs, including the Affordable Care Act; pharmaceutical innovation and regulation; medical device supply; the rise of obesity and its consequences; the influence and growth of aging populations; and much more.
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