滥用统计推理：得克萨斯州向最高法院提供的统计论据试图推翻2020年大选的结果

IF 1.5 Q2 SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS

Statistics and Public Policy Pub Date : 2021-05-25 DOI:10.1080/2330443X.2022.2050327

W. Miao, Qing Pan, J. Gastwirth

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引用次数: 1

摘要

摘要2020年12月，得克萨斯州向美国最高法院提出动议，声称宾夕法尼亚州、佐治亚州、密歇根州和威斯康星州这四个关键州没有按照宪法进行2020年总统选举。得克萨斯州通过一项统计分析支持了其动议，据称该分析表明，拜登在四个战场州的选票极不可能超过特朗普。这篇文章指出，得克萨斯州的说法在逻辑上有缺陷，提交的分析违反了统计学的几个基本原则。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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A Misuse of Statistical Reasoning: The Statistical Arguments Offered by Texas to the Supreme Court in an Attempt to Overturn the Results of the 2020 Election

Abstract In December 2020, Texas filed a motion to the U.S. Supreme Court claiming that the four battleground states: Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan, and Wisconsin did not conduct their 2020 presidential elections in compliance with the Constitution. Texas supported its motion with a statistical analysis purportedly demonstrating that it was highly improbable that Biden had more votes than Trump in the four battleground states. This article points out that Texas’s claim is logically flawed and the analysis submitted violated several fundamental principles of statistics.

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来源期刊

Statistics and Public Policy SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS-

CiteScore

3.20

自引率

6.20%

发文量

审稿时长

32 weeks