Relation analysis of ship speed & environmental conditions: Can historic AIS data form a baseline for autonomous determination of safe speed?

Abstract As no internationally agreed-upon method for determining safe speed values currently exists, collecting vast amounts of information on conventional ship behaviour could be used to train autonomous ship intelligence in determining safe speeds in different conditions. This requires speed data collected from conventional ships to resemble what can be described as safe speeds. To test this, the Automatic Identification System (AIS) and environmental data – namely visibility, mean wind speed and significant wave height – were collected and merged for two study areas in Norway in the period between 27 March 2014 and 1 January 2021. Regression analyses based on 47,490 unique vessel transits were conducted and supplemented by two graphical methods for revealing relationships between variables. Contrary to the contemporary understanding of safe speed, reduced visibility did not lead to significantly reduced transit speeds. Wind and waves caused a reduction in speed in the open ocean, but not in coastal waters. Transit speeds were lower in coastal waters than in the open ocean.