在全球变暖2℃和3℃的情况下,海冰和北极航道可通航性的预估变化

IF 3.3 2区 地球科学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Jinlei Chen , Shichang Kang , Qinglong You , Yulan Zhang , Wentao Du
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引用次数: 6

摘要

尽管全球变暖导致的海冰迅速减少提高了北极航道的通航潜力,但未来该地区商业航运的可行性仍不清楚。研究了全球变暖2°C和3°C条件下北海航线和西北航道的可达性。在考虑海冰和冰阻影响的基础上,应用极地作业极限评估风险指标体系对船舶的通航性进行了测度。9月,除帕里海峡外,其余两条海道的表面气温均为正,升温幅度为2℃。当全球变暖3°C时,变暖区向北延伸,海冰浓度降至20%以下。在波弗特海东部、加拿大北极群岛和格陵兰岛北部的水域,海冰的厚度仍然很大,这两个地区都可能限制北极通道的开放。气温升高导致海冰更年轻,在北极欧洲一侧的海洋中更为明显。结果表明,海冰的变化改善了北极航道的通航性。在全球变暖2℃以后的11月,极地6级船舶可以畅通无阻地沿两条北极航道航行,而在全球变暖3℃时,普通船舶可能能够通过北海航线,最大潜力在9月。该研究为规划未来北极地区的全球航运提供了重要参考,即使模型预测存在一些不确定性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Projected changes in sea ice and the navigability of the Arctic Passages under global warming of 2 ℃ and 3 ℃

Although a rapid decrease in sea ice due to global warming has improved the navigable potential of the Arctic passages, the extent to which this area will become viable for commercial shipping in the future remains unclear. This study investigated the accessibility of the Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage under global warming of 2 °C and 3 °C. We applied the Polar Operational Limit Assessment Risk Indexing System to measure navigability by considering the impacts of sea ice and ice resistance of ships. Except for the Parry Channel, surface air temperature is positive in the Seas along two passages in September under 2 ℃ warming. With global warming of 3 °C, the warming area extends northward, and the concentration of sea ice drops below 20%. The thickness of the sea ice is still substantial in the eastern Beaufort Sea and the waters within the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and north of Greenland, both of which can restricting the opening of the Arctic passages. Temperature increases cause sea ice to be younger and are more pronounced in the seas on the European side of the Arctic. The results indicate that changes in sea ice improve the navigability of the Arctic passages. Ships in Polar Class 6 may be unimpeded along two Arctic passages in November from 2 ℃ warming onward, whereas ordinary ships may be capable of passing the Northern Sea Route with global warming of 3 ℃, with maximum potential in September. This study provides an important reference for planning global shipping in the Arctic in the future, even with some uncertainty in the model projections.

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来源期刊
Anthropocene
Anthropocene Earth and Planetary Sciences-Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)
CiteScore
6.30
自引率
0.00%
发文量
27
审稿时长
102 days
期刊介绍: Anthropocene is an interdisciplinary journal that publishes peer-reviewed works addressing the nature, scale, and extent of interactions that people have with Earth processes and systems. The scope of the journal includes the significance of human activities in altering Earth’s landscapes, oceans, the atmosphere, cryosphere, and ecosystems over a range of time and space scales - from global phenomena over geologic eras to single isolated events - including the linkages, couplings, and feedbacks among physical, chemical, and biological components of Earth systems. The journal also addresses how such alterations can have profound effects on, and implications for, human society. As the scale and pace of human interactions with Earth systems have intensified in recent decades, understanding human-induced alterations in the past and present is critical to our ability to anticipate, mitigate, and adapt to changes in the future. The journal aims to provide a venue to focus research findings, discussions, and debates toward advancing predictive understanding of human interactions with Earth systems - one of the grand challenges of our time.
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