Jinlei Chen , Shichang Kang , Qinglong You , Yulan Zhang , Wentao Du
{"title":"在全球变暖2℃和3℃的情况下,海冰和北极航道可通航性的预估变化","authors":"Jinlei Chen , Shichang Kang , Qinglong You , Yulan Zhang , Wentao Du","doi":"10.1016/j.ancene.2022.100349","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Although a rapid decrease in sea ice due to global warming has improved the navigable potential of the Arctic passages, the extent to which this area will become viable for commercial shipping in the future remains unclear. This study investigated the accessibility of the Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage under global warming of 2 °C and 3 °C. We applied the Polar Operational Limit Assessment Risk Indexing System to measure navigability by considering the impacts of sea ice and ice resistance of ships. Except for the Parry Channel, surface air temperature is positive in the Seas along two passages in September under 2 ℃ warming. With global warming of 3 °C, the warming area extends northward, and the concentration of sea ice drops below 20%. The thickness of the sea ice is still substantial in the eastern Beaufort Sea and the waters within the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and north of Greenland, both of which can restricting the opening of the Arctic passages. Temperature increases cause sea ice to be younger and are more pronounced in the seas on the European side of the Arctic. The results indicate that changes in sea ice improve the navigability of the Arctic passages. Ships in Polar Class 6 may be unimpeded along two Arctic passages in November from 2 ℃ warming onward, whereas ordinary ships may be capable of passing the Northern Sea Route with global warming of 3 ℃, with maximum potential in September. This study provides an important reference for planning global shipping in the Arctic in the future, even with some uncertainty in the model projections.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":56021,"journal":{"name":"Anthropocene","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.3000,"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"6","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Projected changes in sea ice and the navigability of the Arctic Passages under global warming of 2 ℃ and 3 ℃\",\"authors\":\"Jinlei Chen , Shichang Kang , Qinglong You , Yulan Zhang , Wentao Du\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.ancene.2022.100349\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>Although a rapid decrease in sea ice due to global warming has improved the navigable potential of the Arctic passages, the extent to which this area will become viable for commercial shipping in the future remains unclear. This study investigated the accessibility of the Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage under global warming of 2 °C and 3 °C. We applied the Polar Operational Limit Assessment Risk Indexing System to measure navigability by considering the impacts of sea ice and ice resistance of ships. Except for the Parry Channel, surface air temperature is positive in the Seas along two passages in September under 2 ℃ warming. With global warming of 3 °C, the warming area extends northward, and the concentration of sea ice drops below 20%. The thickness of the sea ice is still substantial in the eastern Beaufort Sea and the waters within the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and north of Greenland, both of which can restricting the opening of the Arctic passages. Temperature increases cause sea ice to be younger and are more pronounced in the seas on the European side of the Arctic. The results indicate that changes in sea ice improve the navigability of the Arctic passages. Ships in Polar Class 6 may be unimpeded along two Arctic passages in November from 2 ℃ warming onward, whereas ordinary ships may be capable of passing the Northern Sea Route with global warming of 3 ℃, with maximum potential in September. This study provides an important reference for planning global shipping in the Arctic in the future, even with some uncertainty in the model projections.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":56021,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Anthropocene\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.3000,\"publicationDate\":\"2022-12-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"6\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Anthropocene\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2213305422000303\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Anthropocene","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2213305422000303","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Projected changes in sea ice and the navigability of the Arctic Passages under global warming of 2 ℃ and 3 ℃
Although a rapid decrease in sea ice due to global warming has improved the navigable potential of the Arctic passages, the extent to which this area will become viable for commercial shipping in the future remains unclear. This study investigated the accessibility of the Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage under global warming of 2 °C and 3 °C. We applied the Polar Operational Limit Assessment Risk Indexing System to measure navigability by considering the impacts of sea ice and ice resistance of ships. Except for the Parry Channel, surface air temperature is positive in the Seas along two passages in September under 2 ℃ warming. With global warming of 3 °C, the warming area extends northward, and the concentration of sea ice drops below 20%. The thickness of the sea ice is still substantial in the eastern Beaufort Sea and the waters within the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and north of Greenland, both of which can restricting the opening of the Arctic passages. Temperature increases cause sea ice to be younger and are more pronounced in the seas on the European side of the Arctic. The results indicate that changes in sea ice improve the navigability of the Arctic passages. Ships in Polar Class 6 may be unimpeded along two Arctic passages in November from 2 ℃ warming onward, whereas ordinary ships may be capable of passing the Northern Sea Route with global warming of 3 ℃, with maximum potential in September. This study provides an important reference for planning global shipping in the Arctic in the future, even with some uncertainty in the model projections.
AnthropoceneEarth and Planetary Sciences-Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)
CiteScore
6.30
自引率
0.00%
发文量
27
审稿时长
102 days
期刊介绍:
Anthropocene is an interdisciplinary journal that publishes peer-reviewed works addressing the nature, scale, and extent of interactions that people have with Earth processes and systems. The scope of the journal includes the significance of human activities in altering Earth’s landscapes, oceans, the atmosphere, cryosphere, and ecosystems over a range of time and space scales - from global phenomena over geologic eras to single isolated events - including the linkages, couplings, and feedbacks among physical, chemical, and biological components of Earth systems. The journal also addresses how such alterations can have profound effects on, and implications for, human society. As the scale and pace of human interactions with Earth systems have intensified in recent decades, understanding human-induced alterations in the past and present is critical to our ability to anticipate, mitigate, and adapt to changes in the future. The journal aims to provide a venue to focus research findings, discussions, and debates toward advancing predictive understanding of human interactions with Earth systems - one of the grand challenges of our time.