Effect of bilateral and multilateral concessional debts on public investment in Africa: A contingency analysis

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the relative influence of bilateral and multilateral concessional debts on public investment in 32 sub-Saharan African countries over the period 1985–2020. Dynamic panel autoregressive distributed lag models comprising the mean group, pooled mean group and dynamic fixed effect estimators were employed in our model estimations. The results revealed that bilateral and multilateral concessional debts had a long-run positive and significant effect on public investment. The findings indicated that a 1% change in bilateral and multilateral concessional debt was associated with 8.6 and 11.3% increases in public investment, respectively. While the short-run influence of bilateral concessional debts was significantly positive, multilateral concessional debts had a short-run positive but insignificant effect on public investment. It is discovered that institutional quality is associated with declines in public investment. The contingency analysis shows that institutional quality explains a lot about how well bilateral and multilateral concessional debts drive public investment. The evidence suggests that poor institutional quality is more likely to undermine the effectiveness of bilateral concessional debts on productive investment than multilateral concessional debts.