使用基于风险的持续时间方法分析碰撞之间的持续时间,在均值和方差上具有异质性:一些新的证据

IF 12.5 1区 工程技术 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH
Mohammad M. Hamed, Ahmad AlShaer
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引用次数: 2

摘要

本文通过对2016年至2020年间涉及一起或多起事故的驾驶员的碰撞间隔时间进行建模,为碰撞涉及的潜在因素提供了新的证据。提出了几种具有异质性均值和方差的基于随机参数的灾害持续时间模型。在这项研究的其他发现中,结果显示,男性司机卷入一次撞车事故的风险高于女性司机(在只卷入一次撞车事故的司机中)。然而,女性司机更有可能发生更严重的撞车事故。在只发生过一次车祸的女性司机中,千禧一代的车祸风险最高。然而,婴儿潮一代和Z一代司机发生车祸的风险高于千禧一代或X一代司机,无论是男性还是女性。该分析提供了证据,表明男性和女性以及不同年龄组之间存在不同的碰撞风险模式。滞后持续时间依赖性表明,距离上一次撞车的时间越长,驾驶员就会越早卷入下一次撞车。此外,滞后的持续时间依赖关系暗示了两种类型的依赖关系。首先是深度依赖。有这种依赖的司机往往是千禧一代的第三级男性司机、X一代的第三级司机、Z一代的第三级司机或千禧一代的第四级男性。第二种是浅依赖。具有这种依赖关系的司机往往是第三级女性千禧一代司机、第四级男性X一代司机和第五级男性千禧一代司机。对于那些涉及不止一次事故的人来说,发生事故的可能性几乎与没有发生事故的时间无关。估计结果还显示,坠机幸存者表现出不同的后续行为。在一场严重的车祸中幸存下来,并经历涉及多辆车的车祸,可能会导致千禧一代男性的危险习惯化。此外,许多司机似乎在第一次撞车后改变了他们的行为,尤其是只发生过一次撞车的男性和女性司机。其他司机没有表现出任何行为变化,包括第三级女性千禧一代、第四级男性X一代和第五级男性千禧一代,他们的滞后依赖程度很低,他们发生车祸的可能性几乎与没有发生车祸的时间无关。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Analysis of duration between crashes using a hazard-based duration approach with heterogeneity in means and variances: Some new evidence

This paper provides new evidence for the factors underlying crash involvement by modeling the time duration between crashes for drivers involved in one or more crashes between 2016 and 2020. Several random parameter hazard-based duration models with heterogeneous means and variances are presented. Among this study’s other findings, the results show that male drivers had a higher risk of being involved in one crash than female drivers (among drivers involved in only one crash). Female drivers were more likely to be involved in higher-order crashes however. Among female drivers involved in only one crash, millennials had the highest crash risk. However, baby boomers and Gen Z drivers had a greater risk of being involved in a crash than millennials or Gen X drivers, whether male or female. The analysis presents evidence for distinct crash risk patterns in men and women and among different age groups. The lagged duration dependence indicates that the longer the time from a previous crash, the sooner the driver will be involved in their next crash. In addition, the lagged duration dependence suggests two types of dependencies. The first is profound dependency. Drivers with this type of dependency tended to be tier-three male millennials, tier-three Gen X drivers, tier-three Gen Z drivers, or tier-four male millennials. The second is shallow dependency. Drivers with this type of dependency tended to be tier-three female millennials, tier-four male Gen X drivers, and tier-five male millennials. The likelihood of a crash was almost independent of the time that had transpired without a crash for those involved in more than one crash. Estimation results also revealed that crash survivors showed different subsequent behavior. Surviving a severe crash and experiencing crashes involving multiple vehicles may lead to hazardous habituation among male millennials. Moreover, many drivers seemed to alter their behavior after the first crash, particularly male and female drivers involved in one crash only. Other drivers did not show any behavioral changes, including tier-three female millennials, tier-four male Gen X, and tier-five male millennials, who had a shallow lagged dependency, and their likelihood of a crash was almost independent of the time that transpired without a crash.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
22.10
自引率
34.10%
发文量
35
审稿时长
24 days
期刊介绍: Analytic Methods in Accident Research is a journal that publishes articles related to the development and application of advanced statistical and econometric methods in studying vehicle crashes and other accidents. The journal aims to demonstrate how these innovative approaches can provide new insights into the factors influencing the occurrence and severity of accidents, thereby offering guidance for implementing appropriate preventive measures. While the journal primarily focuses on the analytic approach, it also accepts articles covering various aspects of transportation safety (such as road, pedestrian, air, rail, and water safety), construction safety, and other areas where human behavior, machine failures, or system failures lead to property damage or bodily harm.
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