乌克兰宏观经济失能问题研究

M. Bril
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引用次数: 2

摘要

乌克兰政治和经济领域的危机加剧了宏观经济失衡,进而恶化了社会经济状况,使经商时刻复杂化,公共行政部门出现违规行为和不稳定现象,社会紧张。其结果是宏观经济失衡累积到一个临界点,威胁到本应在乌克兰经济空间内进行的经济进程的正常、逐步发展。本文论述了乌克兰经济的主要失衡指标及其在现代乌克兰经济政策条件下的适用性。考虑了乌克兰经济和世界其他国家主要宏观不稳定因素的相互联系,从而确定了造成失衡的一些内生(外部)和外生(内部)因素。提出了不平衡检测机制,该机制结合了它们研究的某些类别、方法、原则和方法。开发了识别乌克兰经济中宏观经济失衡的模拟模型,在此基础上研究了宏观经济失衡系统的动态特性,构建了短期指标预测,并对未来失衡概率进行了评估。据估计,宏观经济预测指标也属于关键领域——外债总额、实际有效汇率的变化、出口市场份额的变化——表明存在外部失衡和不均衡现象。根据预测计算,构成失衡表的其他宏观指标显示出接近最终极限的趋势和不稳定风险,这证实了该国金融和经济系统的脆弱性。所获得的预测结果将有助于通过及时和适当的快速反应管理行动防止新的失衡。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Research of macroeconomic disables of Ukraine
The crisis in the political and economic spheres in Ukraine has led to an aggravation of macroeconomic imbalances, which in turn worsen the socio-economic situation, complicate the moments of doing business, manifestation of violations and instability in the public administration sector and social tension in society. As the result is the accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances to a critical point that threatens the normal, gradual development of economic processes that should take place in the economic space of Ukraine. The article deals with the main imbalances indicators of the country's economy and their applicability under modern Ukrainian economic policy conditions. The interconnection of the main macro-instability factors in Ukraine economy and other countries of the world is considered, which allows to identity a number of endogenous (external) and exogenous (internal) factors that create imbalances. The mechanism of imbalances detection is proposed, which combines certain categories, methods, principles and methods of their research. The simulation model for identifying macroeconomic imbalances in the Ukrainian economy was developed, based on which the dynamic properties of the macroeconomic imbalances system were investigated, a short-term indicators forecast was constructed, and assessment of the imbalances probability in the future was implemented. Forecast macroeconomic indicators were estimated that fall into critical areas also the gross external debt, changes in the real effective exchange rate, changes in the share of the export market show that external imbalances and disproportion exist. Other macro indicators that form the imbalances table, according to projected calculations, show trends that are close to the ultimate limits and instability risks which confirms the vulnerability of the country's financial and economic system. The obtained forecasting results will allow to prevent new imbalances through the timely and appropriate rapid response management action.
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