整合聚合与非聚合水平碰撞分析的计量经济学框架

IF 12.5 1区 工程技术 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH
Shahrior Pervaz, Tanmoy Bhowmik, Naveen Eluru
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引用次数: 0

摘要

传统的安全文献中,按严重程度的总碰撞频率和分解严重程度的分析是独立进行的。目前的研究工作通过同时使用聚合和分解级别的碰撞数据来弥合这两种不同研究流之间的差距,从而为安全文献做出了贡献。具体而言,本研究提出了一个整合聚合和非聚合层次模型的框架。所提出的框架允许将崩溃记录水平上的自变量的影响纳入总水平倾向估计中。该实证分析基于2019年佛罗里达州奥兰多市的撞车数据。分解级别分析使用20,204个碰撞记录,每个记录包含碰撞特定变量、时间特征、道路、车辆和驾驶员因素、道路环境和天气信息。对于聚合级别模型分析,本研究将300多个交通分析区域的事故记录按严重等级进行聚合。在此分析中考虑了一系列详尽的独立变量,包括道路和交通因素、土地利用属性、建筑环境和社会人口特征。通过采用几个拟合优度和预测措施,进一步增强了实证分析。还使用保留样本执行验证练习,以突出所建议的集成模型相对于按严重程度计算的非集成崩溃计数模型的优越性能。该模型还可以适应同一区域内碰撞记录之间不可观测的空间相关性。模型结果说明了开发碰撞频率和严重程度综合模型系统的好处。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
An econometric framework for integrating aggregate and disaggregate level crash analysis

Traditionally, aggregate crash frequency by severity and disaggregate severity analysis have been conducted independently in the safety literature. The current research effort contributes to the safety literature by bridging the gap between these two different streams of research by using both aggregate and disaggregate level crash data simultaneously. To be specific, the study proposes a framework that integrates aggregate and disaggregate level models. The proposed framework allows for the influence of independent variables at the crash record level to be incorporated within the aggregate level propensity estimation. The empirical analysis is based on the crash data drawn from the city of Orlando, Florida for the year 2019. The disaggregate level analysis uses 20,204 crash records that contain crash specific variables, temporal characteristics, roadway, vehicle and driver factors, road environmental and weather information for each record. For aggregate level model analysis, the study aggregated the crash records by severity class over 300 traffic analysis zones. An exhaustive set of independent variables including roadway and traffic factors, land-use attributes, built environment, and sociodemographic characteristics are considered in this analysis. The empirical analysis is further augmented by employing several goodness of fit and predictive measures. A validation exercise is also performed using a holdout sample to highlight the superior performance of the proposed integrated model relative to the non-integrated crash count by severity model. The proposed model can also accommodate common unobserved spatial correlation among crash records within the same zone. The model results illustrate the benefits of developing an integrated model system for crash frequency and severity.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
22.10
自引率
34.10%
发文量
35
审稿时长
24 days
期刊介绍: Analytic Methods in Accident Research is a journal that publishes articles related to the development and application of advanced statistical and econometric methods in studying vehicle crashes and other accidents. The journal aims to demonstrate how these innovative approaches can provide new insights into the factors influencing the occurrence and severity of accidents, thereby offering guidance for implementing appropriate preventive measures. While the journal primarily focuses on the analytic approach, it also accepts articles covering various aspects of transportation safety (such as road, pedestrian, air, rail, and water safety), construction safety, and other areas where human behavior, machine failures, or system failures lead to property damage or bodily harm.
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