邮寄投票会增加欺诈吗?当各州转向邮寄选举时,估计报告的选民欺诈的变化

IF 1.5 Q2 SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS
Jonathan Auerbach, Steve Pierson
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引用次数: 2

摘要

摘要我们估计了当各州转向邮寄选举时,选民欺诈案件报告数量的变化。我们考虑了两种通过邮寄方式促进投票的州:大量选民通过邮寄方式收到选票的州(邮寄接收州,RBM)和注册选民自动通过邮寄方式发送选票的州的子集(邮寄投票州,VBM)。然后,我们使用社会科学中的两种标准方法,将RBM(VBM)州的选民欺诈案件数量与非RBM(非VBM)各州的案件数量进行比较。我们没有发现任何证据表明邮寄投票总体上会增加选民欺诈的风险。2016年至2019年间,RBM州报告的欺诈率与非RBM州相似。此外,我们估计,如果华盛顿没有引入VBM法,它在2011年至2019年间还会报告73起欺诈案件。虽然我们对数据的分析只考虑了许多可能的方法中的两种,但我们认为,如果邮寄选举时欺诈行为更为常见,我们的发现不太可能。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Does Voting by Mail Increase Fraud? Estimating the Change in Reported Voter Fraud When States Switch to Elections By Mail
Abstract We estimate the change in the reported number of voter fraud cases when states switch to conducting elections by mail. We consider two types of states in which voting is facilitated by mail: states where a large number of voters receive ballots by mail (receive-by-mail states, RBM) and a subset of these states where registered voters are automatically sent ballots by mail (vote-by-mail states, VBM). We then compare the number of voter fraud cases in RBM (VBM) states to the number of cases in non-RBM (non-VBM) states, using two approaches standard in the social sciences. We find no evidence that voting by mail increases the risk of voter fraud overall. Between 2016 and 2019, RBM (VBM) states reported similar fraud rates to non-RBM (non-VBM) states. Moreover, we estimate Washington would have reported 73 more cases of fraud between 2011 and 2019 had it not introduced its VBM law. While our analysis of the data considers only two of many possible approaches, we argue our findings are unlikely were fraud more common when elections are held by mail.
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来源期刊
Statistics and Public Policy
Statistics and Public Policy SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS-
CiteScore
3.20
自引率
6.20%
发文量
13
审稿时长
32 weeks
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