21世纪极端气温变化对波兰社会和经济的潜在影响概述

Pub Date : 2020-01-31 DOI:10.15233/GFZ.2019.36.14
Joanna Jędruszkiewicz, J. Wibig
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引用次数: 2

摘要

这项工作概述了预计波兰极端气候的变化如何影响人类健康和经济。为此,使用了来自7个区域气候模式的经统计校正的数据。预计到21世纪末,波兰中部和南部的极端高温事件(即热浪、热带夜)将显著增加,这可能严重影响生活在大城市地区的社会。较少的极端寒冷天气改善了冬季的热舒适。气候变暖的负面影响将影响夏季电力需求较高的能源系统和农业:生长季节提前开始和开花将增加春季霜冻损害的风险,而过热将减少夏季的产量。波兰旅游业将受益于更高的热舒适(除了在遥远的将来炎热的7月和8月,以及在不久的将来冬季变暖导致积雪减少)。
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General overview of the potential effect of extreme temperature change on society and economyin Poland in the 21st century
This work gives an overview on how the projected changes in the extremes in Poland might impact human health and economy. For that purpose, statisti-cally corrected data from 7 regional climate models were used. A significant increase of extreme hot events (i.e. heat waves, tropical nights) is projected for Central and Southern Poland for the end of the 21st century which might seri-ously affect a society living in large urban areas. Less extreme cold events im-prove thermal comfort in winter. The negative impact of the warming will affect energy systems with higher demand for electricity in summer and agriculture: an earlier beginning of the growing season and flower blooming will enhance the risk of frost damages in spring, whereas excessive heat will reduce yields in summer. Polish tourism should benefit from higher thermal comfort (except for hot July and August in the far future and warming in the winter season bring-ing snow cover depletion in the near future).
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