Inozemstvo, Zagreb ili neki drugi grad u Hrvatskoj? Društveno porijeklo, racionalnost izbora i aspiracije srednjoškolaca prema mjestu studiranja

IN CROATIAN: U radu se ispituju aspiracije hrvatskih srednjoskolaca kad je rijec o mjestu studiranja (inozemstvo, Zagreb, drugi grad u Hrvatskoj). Teorijsko polaziste rada cini teorija racionalnog izbora, koja se koristi pri objasnjenju obrazovnih odluka u periodu obrazovnih tranzicija. Provedena je viserazinska multinomijalna regresijska analiza na nacionalno reprezentativnom uzorku ucenika cetverogodisnjih srednjih skola (N=10 829). Podatci su prikupljeni tijekom skolske godine 2017./2018. Rezultati pokazuju da su aspiracije prema mjestu studiranja povezane s drustvenim podrijetlom ucenika: vece aspiracije prema studiranju u Zagrebu povezane su s visokoskolskim obrazovanjem barem jednog roditelja te s aktivnim radnim statusom majke i oca, dok su vece aspiracije za studiranjem u inozemstvu povezane s visokoskolskim obrazovanjem obaju roditelja i visim mjesecnim prihodima kucanstva. Ucenicke aspiracije prema studiranju u inozemstvu povezane su i s cimbenicima racionalnog izbora: vecom brigom za izbjegavanjem silazne drustvene mobilnosti, visom samoprocjenom vjerojatnosti uspjesnog upisa i zavrsetka studija, nižom procjenom vrijednosti obrazovanja u hrvatskom drustvu te visom procjenom nepostovanja meritokratskih principa u hrvatskom visokom obrazovanju. S druge strane, aspiracije prema studiranju u Zagrebu od navedenih su cimbenika povezane samo s visom procjenom drustvene vrijednosti obrazovanja. Svi su ucinci bili neovisni o skolskom uspjehu ucenika. Dobiveni nalazi tumace se u kontekstu horizontalnih nejednakosti u visokom obrazovanju te se upucuje na moguce implikacije nalaza za obrazovnu politiku. --------------- IN ENGLISH: The paper examines the aspirations of Croatian secondary school students towards studying abroad, in Zagreb or in some other city in Croatia. The theoretical background of the paper was based on the rational choice theory, typically used in explaining educational decisions in periods of educational transition. A multi-level multinomial regression analysis was conducted using a nationally representative sample of students attending four-year secondary schools (N=10 829). The data were collected during the school year 2017/2018. The results indicate that aspirations towards the place of studying are related to the students’ social background: stronger aspirations towards studying in Zagreb correlate with having at least one parent with higher education and with the active working status of the mother and father, while stronger aspirations towards studying abroad correlate with the higher education of both parents and a higher monthly household income. Students’ aspirations towards studying abroad are also related to the rational choice indicators: greater concern with avoiding downward social mobility, higher estimate of the probability of successful enrolment at and completion of higher education, lower assessment of the value of education in Croatian society and higher assessment of non-compliance with principles of meritocracy in Croatian higher education. On the other hand, aspirations towards studying in Zagreb only correlate with a higher assessment of the social value of education. All effects were independent of the students’ school performance. The findings are interpreted in the context of horizontal inequalities in higher education, pointing to possible implications for the educational policy.