大衰退后酒精或毒品影响下多车碰撞伤害严重程度的时间变化和时间不稳定性

IF 12.5 1区 工程技术 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH
Li Song , Wei (David) Fan , Yang Li
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引用次数: 20

摘要

本文利用2008年至2017年北卡罗来纳州酒精/药物影响下驾驶员的多车碰撞数据,探讨了大衰退后三个碰撞周期阶段中影响酒精/药物受损碰撞伤害严重程度的因素的时间变化(白天与夜间)和时间不稳定性。利用均值和方差均存在异质性的随机参数logit模型来识别显著因素,探索未观察到的异质性,揭示因素之间的相关性,并提出经济状况对因素可能产生的影响。不同的似然比检验表明,各因素的影响在不同时间和经济相关周期期间差异很大。一天中显著的时间变化意味着夜间与白天相比,酒精/毒品导致的车祸造成的伤害更严重。同时,在三个周期内也观察到几个因素的边际效应的时间不稳定性。在经济萧条时期,熟练和谨慎的老年司机比年轻司机更安全。此外,抑郁期和扩张期都可能影响司机对酒精/毒品的参与。酒精/药物使用行为的变化强调了在经济大衰退后,计算时间变化、时间不稳定性以及酒精/药物受损的崩溃因素固有的均值和方差的异质性的重要性。这项研究的见解应该是有价值的,以改善具体的执法,限定惩罚,组织有针对性的运动,并设计其他预防活动的酒精/药物受损碰撞。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Time-of-day variations and the temporal instability of multi-vehicle crash injury severities under the influence of alcohol or drugs after the Great Recession

Using data of multi-vehicle crashes with drivers under the influence of alcohol/drugs in North Carolina from 2008 to 2017, this paper explores time-of-day variations (daytime vs. nighttime) and temporal instabilities of factors affecting alcohol/drug-impaired crash injury severities during three crash cycle phases after the Great Recession. Random parameters logit models with heterogeneity in the means and variances are utilized to identify significant factors, explore unobserved heterogeneity, reveal correlations between factors, and suggest possible impacts of economic conditions on the factors. Different likelihood ratio tests indicate that the effects of factors vary significantly across time-of-day and economic-related cycle periods. Significant time-of-day variations imply more severe injury alcohol/drug involved crashes during the nighttime compared to the daytime. Meanwhile, temporal instabilities are also observed in marginal effects of several factors across three-cycle periods. Proficient and cautious elder drivers were safer than young drivers during the depression period. Also, both depressing and expanding periods could affect the involvement of alcohol/drugs for drivers. Shifts in alcohol/drug use behaviors underscore the importance of accounting time-of-day variations, temporal instabilities, and heterogeneity in the means and variances inherent in alcohol/drug-impaired crash factors after the Great Recession. The insights of this study should be valuable to improve specific enforcements, qualify punishments, organize targeted campaigns, and design other preventive activities for alcohol/drug-impaired crashes.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
22.10
自引率
34.10%
发文量
35
审稿时长
24 days
期刊介绍: Analytic Methods in Accident Research is a journal that publishes articles related to the development and application of advanced statistical and econometric methods in studying vehicle crashes and other accidents. The journal aims to demonstrate how these innovative approaches can provide new insights into the factors influencing the occurrence and severity of accidents, thereby offering guidance for implementing appropriate preventive measures. While the journal primarily focuses on the analytic approach, it also accepts articles covering various aspects of transportation safety (such as road, pedestrian, air, rail, and water safety), construction safety, and other areas where human behavior, machine failures, or system failures lead to property damage or bodily harm.
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