Spillover Effects of Restrictive Immigration Policy on Latinx Citizens: Raising or Lowering Earnings?

This paper investigates the question of whether and how restrictive immigration policies affect the earnings of Latinxs who are not the target of these policies—that is, Latinx citizens. Focusing on policies at the state (E-Verify) and county (287(g)) level, we investigate possible spillover on Latinx citizen earnings from 2006 through 2016. We use multiple sources of data, merging policy and census data with two national probability samples of Latinx citizens. Our results show that E-Verify and 287(g) affect earnings similarly. Laws leave wage-employed workers unaffected and instead exclusively shape the earnings of self-employed respondents. Among self-employed, policy effects depend on the type of county respondents live in. Once laws like 287(g) or E-Verify go into effect, Latinx self-employed see dramatic earnings losses when living outside of ethnic enclaves, while seeing earnings gains when living within predominantly-Latinx counties.