基于客观权重法的中国石油资源供应安全研究

IF 3.7 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH
Yuli Zhou , Ming Wang , Hongyong Yuan , Lida Huang
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引用次数: 1

摘要

随着中国经济的快速发展,石油资源的对外依存度不断提高,石油资源的安全已成为国家安全的重要组成部分。为了科学、客观地评价中国石油资源供应的安全性,本研究在矿产资源全生命周期安全评价理论和方法的基础上,建立了相应的石油全生命周期评价指标体系,并基于近10年的相关公开数据,对指标进行了进一步的独立分析和灰色关联分析,以评价中国石油风险状况。结果表明,中国石油风险总体趋势呈先下降后上升的“U”型特征。进一步分析发现,中国矿产资源受国内生产形势和国际贸易的影响较大。建议通过维护石油资源国际贸易、加强国内石油资源战略储备、开发新的可替代清洁能源等措施,提高石油供应安全弹性。本研究的研究方法较传统方法更具逻辑性和系统性,对影响因素的分析较为全面,具有较高的应用价值,为构建石油资源安全大数据分析评价指标体系提供了启示。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Research on the security of China's oil resources supply based on the objective weight method

With the rapid development of China's economy, external dependence on petroleum resources continues to increase, and their security has become an important part of national security. To evaluate the security of China's petroleum resource supply in a scientific and objective manner, this study establishes a corresponding petroleum life-cycle evaluation index system, based on the theory and method of the whole life-cycle security evaluation of mineral resources, and conducts further independence and grey correlation analysis on the indexes for the purpose of evaluating the petroleum risk situation in China, based on relevant public data from the past 10 years. The results show that the overall trend of China's oil risk has a “U”-shaped characteristic of first decreasing and then increasing. Furthermore, the analysis finds that China's mineral resources have been greatly influenced by the domestic production situation and international trade. These results suggest that the security of petroleum supply can be improved by safeguarding international trade in petroleum resources, strengthening the strategic reserves of domestic petroleum resources, and developing new alternative clean energy sources to improve the resilience of petroleum supply security. This study's research methodology is more logical and systematic than traditional methods, and the analysis of the factors is comprehensive and of high application value, providing implications for the establishment of a big data analysis and evaluation index system for oil resource security.

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来源期刊
安全科学与韧性(英文)
安全科学与韧性(英文) Management Science and Operations Research, Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality, Safety Research
CiteScore
8.70
自引率
0.00%
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审稿时长
72 days
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