基于非加性预测组合的旅游需求预测

IF 4.4 3区 管理学 Q1 HOSPITALITY, LEISURE, SPORT & TOURISM
Yi-Chung Hu, Geng Wu, Peng Jiang
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引用次数: 12

摘要

准确预测旅游需求可以帮助政府制定产业政策,指导企业进行投资规划。综合预报可以提高预测旅游需求的准确性,但是在发展这种综合预报方面的工作有限。本文讨论了这方面的两个重要问题。首先,线性组合是旅游预测组合的常用方法。然而,加性技术不合理地忽略了输入之间的相互作用。其次,现有的数据往往不符合具体的统计假设。灰色预测不需要数据遵循任何统计分布,因此引起了人们的注意。本文提出了一种非加性组合方法,利用模糊积分对单个灰色预测模型得到的单模型预测结果进行积分。以中国大陆和台湾的旅游需求为实证案例,结果表明本文提出的方法优于其他组合方法。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Tourism Demand Forecasting Using Nonadditive Forecast Combinations
Accurately forecasting the demand for tourism can help governments formulate industrial policies and guide the business sector in investment planning. Combining forecasts can improve the accuracy of forecasting the demand for tourism, but limited work has been devoted to developing such combinations. This article addresses two significant issues in this context. First, the linear combination is the commonly used method of combining tourism forecasts. However, additive techniques unreasonably ignore interactions among the inputs. Second, the available data often do not adhere to specific statistical assumptions. Grey prediction has thus drawn attention because it does not require that the data follow any statistical distribution. This study proposes a nonadditive combination method by using the fuzzy integral to integrate single-model forecasts obtained from individual grey prediction models. Using China and Taiwan tourism demand as empirical cases, the results show that the proposed method outperforms the other combined methods considered here.
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来源期刊
Journal of Hospitality & Tourism Research
Journal of Hospitality & Tourism Research HOSPITALITY, LEISURE, SPORT & TOURISM-
CiteScore
10.10
自引率
9.50%
发文量
54
期刊介绍: The Journal of Hospitality & Tourism Research (JHTR) is an international scholarly research journal that publishes high-quality, refereed articles that advance the knowledge base of the hospitality and tourism field. JHTR focuses on original research, both conceptual and empirical, that clearly contributes to the theoretical development of our field. The word contribution is key. Simple applications of theories from other disciplines to a hospitality or tourism context are not encouraged unless the authors clearly state why this context significantly advances theory or knowledge. JHTR encourages research based on a variety of methods, qualitative and quantitative.
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