Reducing the income tax burden for households with children: an assessment of the child tax credit reform in Austria

In this paper, we analyse the impact of the implementation of a child tax credit in Austria in 2018. We combine microsimulation techniques, labour supply modelling and dynamic general equilibrium modelling to make an ex ante evaluation of the reform, accounting also for behavioural responses of individuals. We show that although the macroeconomic effect of the Austrian reform is expected to be relatively small, accounting for feedback effects on a micro-level is very important, especially when analysing socioeconomic and policy-relevant indicators, such as poverty and inequality. When focusing on the distributional implications and the impact on poverty, our analysis highlights that the first-round effects of the child tax credit substantially underestimate the increase in household income for households with children. Additionally, we find that when accounting for second-round effects, the loss in tax revenues is partly offset. The estimated self-financing effect of the reform is estimated to be about 13 per cent. Our results also indicate that part of the associated tax decrease can be potentially captured by the employer, meaning that gross wages are expected to fall slightly. Therefore, in the medium term, some households without children might suffer a small reduction in their disposable income. Overall, our analysis highlights the importance of accounting for second-round effects when analysing tax reforms ex ante.