COVID - 19与长期经济增长

IF 1 4区经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS

Australian Economic Review Pub Date : 2023-02-15 DOI:10.1111/1467-8462.12500

Jinji Hao, Harry Gregg, Yao Yao

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文调查了COVID-19大流行对南非长期经济增长的影响。我们在修正的索洛-斯旺模型中嵌入了一个流行病学模型，并探索了各种渠道，如发病率、死亡率、失业率、上学时间损失和资本积累。我们证明，未来40年，新冠肺炎疫情将使南非人均国内生产总值年均增长率降低0.07个百分点，较无疫情基准下降25%。我们的研究表明，学校关闭造成的人力资本损失占经济放缓的一半以上。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

COVID-19 and Long-Term Economic Growth

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COVID-19 and Long-Term Economic Growth

This article investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the long-term economic growth of South Africa. We embed an epidemiological model in a modified Solow–Swan model and explore various channels such as morbidity, mortality, unemployment, loss of school days and capital accumulation. We demonstrate that COVID-19 will lower the average annual growth rate of GDP per capita of South Africa by 0.07 percentage points in the next four decades, a 25 per cent decline relative to the no-COVID benchmark. We show that human capital losses due to school closures account for more than half of the economic slowdown.

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来源期刊

Australian Economic Review ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

1.90

自引率

10.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： An applied economics journal with a strong policy orientation, The Australian Economic Review publishes high-quality articles applying economic analysis to a wide range of macroeconomic and microeconomic topics relevant to both economic and social policy issues. Produced by the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, it is the leading journal of its kind in Australia and the Asia-Pacific region. While it is of special interest to Australian academics, students, policy makers, and others interested in the Australian economy, the journal also considers matters of international interest.