制约地下经济的金融因素:以乌克兰为例

O. Pidkhomnyi, M. Rubakha
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引用次数: 0

摘要

乌克兰的地下经济是加速经济增长和欧洲一体化进程的主要障碍之一。高度的地下化导致财政和货币政策工具对国民经济发展的监管影响减弱。在这种背景下,金融和经济进程是一个重大挑战,也是当今乌克兰的首要问题。本文旨在确定限制经济下行的金融杠杆,并通过一定的货币和预算参数调节来证明降低下行风险的措施是合理的。研究方法论基础是科学的抽象、归纳、演绎、概括、逻辑方法。对于分析计算,有使用系数分析、数学方法,包括相关性分析、比较和分组方法、综合、表格和图形方法。以乌克兰地下经济为研究对象,运用该方法的系统。因此,该研究基于费什内尔相关系数的计算,揭示了货币指标之间关系的存在、密切程度和方向(货币总量变化值M0、M2和M3、CPI、官方格里夫纳对美元汇率的变化),预算参数(政府间转移的变化、外部公共债务的变化,考虑到通货膨胀)和地下经济水平。因此,根据分析结果,确定了相关监管机构影响国民经济发展的主要方向。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Financial factors for restraining the underground economy: case of Ukraine
The underground economy in Ukraine is one of the major obstacles on the way to accelerative economic growth and European integration processes. The high level of undergrounding leads to the weakening of the regulatory impact of fiscal and monetary policy instruments on the development of the national economy. Against this background, the financial and economic processes undergrounding is a major challenge and a top priority problem for Ukraine today. The article aims to determine the financial levers to restrict economy’s undergrounding and justify measures to reduce the risk of undergrounding by certain monetary and budgetary parameters regulation. The research methodological basis is the methods of scientific abstraction, induction, deduction, generalization, logical method. For analytical calculations there are used coefficient analysis, mathematical methods, including correlation analysis, comparison and grouping methods, synthesis, tabular and graphical methods. The Ukraine underground economy is selected as the study object example with this methods’ system using. Therefore the study, based on the calculation of the Fechner correlation coefficient, has revealed the presence, closeness and direction of the relationship between monetary indicators (values of changes in monetary aggregates M0, M2 and M3, CPI, changes in the official hryvnia rate to the US dollar), budgetary parameters (changes in intergovernmental transfers, changes in external public debt, taking into account inflation) and the underground economy level. Thus, according to the results of the analysis, the main directions of the relevant regulatory bodies influence on the national economy unshadowing have been determined.
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