2011-2021年宏观经济学对印尼伊斯兰股票指数的影响和贡献

Sandi Mulyadi, M. G. Wibowo
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究旨在确定宏观经济变量对印尼伊斯兰教股票指数(ISSI)的影响。使用的宏观经济变量是工业生产指数(IPI)、印尼伊斯兰银行证书(SBIS)、货币供应量(JUB)、汇率、利率(TSB)和通货膨胀。观测数据为2011 - 2021年的月度数据。所采用的方法是测试VECM的影响和贡献。VECM模型的检验结果发现,短期内所有变量对印尼伊斯兰教股票指数都没有影响,而长期来看,IPI、SBIS和通货膨胀都有负影响,而JUB、汇率和TSB有正影响,基于IRF检验表明,ISSI对所有正宏观经济变量的波动都有反应,除了通货膨胀是负反应,各宏观经济变量的贡献为IPI (0.64), SBIS(2.01)。与印尼伊斯兰教法股票指数相比,JUB(0.45),汇率(0.64),TSB(0.01),通货膨胀(1.16)。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The Influence and Contribution of Macroeconomics to The Indonesian Sharia Stock Index for The Period 2011-2021
This study aims to determine the impact of macroeconomic variables on the Indonesian Sharia Stock Index (ISSI). The macroeconomic variables used are Industrial Production Index (IPI), Indonesian Sharia Bank Certificate (SBIS), Money Supply (JUB), exchange rates, Interest Rates (TSB), and inflation. The observed data is in the form of monthly data for the period 2011 to 2021. The approach used is to test the impact and contribution of VECM. The test results with the VECM model found that in the short term all variables had no effect on the Indonesian Sharia Stock Index, whereas, in the long term, IPI, SBIS, and inflation had a negative effect, and JUB, exchange rate, and TSB had a positive effect, based on the IRF test showed that ISSI responding to fluctuations from all positive macroeconomic variables except inflation which responded negatively and the contribution of each macroeconomic variable was IPI (0.64), SBIS (2.01), JUB (0.45), the exchange rate (0.64), TSB (0.01), and inflation (1.16) against the Indonesian Sharia Stock Index.
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