学会预测扩散

IF 8.2 1区社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

International Organization Pub Date : 2021-07-12 DOI:10.1017/S0020818321000345

N. Miller

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引用次数: 0

摘要

各国在评估和预测外国核意图方面的有效性如何?根据1957年至1966年间美国对外国扩散意图的近200项评估，本研究报告发现，近80%的可测试美国评估是正确的，它们从50年代末的高度不准确转变为60年代的高度准确。基于定量和定性分析，我得出结论，从早期的失败中学习可以使情报机构达到更高的准确性。

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Learning to Predict Proliferation

Abstract How effective are states at assessing and predicting the nuclear intentions of foreign countries? Drawing on close to 200 US assessments of foreign countries’ proliferation intentions between 1957 and 1966, this research note finds that close to 80 percent of testable US assessments were correct and that they shifted from highly inaccurate in the late 1950s to highly accurate in the 1960s. Based on quantitative and qualitative analysis, I conclude that learning from early failures led the intelligence community to achieve higher accuracy.

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来源期刊

International Organization Multiple-

CiteScore

14.50

自引率

1.30%

发文量

期刊介绍： International Organization (IO) is a prominent peer-reviewed journal that comprehensively covers the field of international affairs. Its subject areas encompass foreign policies, international relations, political economy, security policies, environmental disputes, regional integration, alliance patterns, conflict resolution, economic development, and international capital movements. Continuously ranked among the top journals in the field, IO does not publish book reviews but instead features high-quality review essays that survey new developments, synthesize important ideas, and address key issues for future scholarship.