The Influence of Current Temperature Fluctuations on the Economic Activity of the Baikal Region1

ABSTRACT This article reviews a number of characteristics of the heating season in the Baikal region’s south both over many years and interannually. It uncovers a 6- to 10-day reduction in the heating seasons of recent decades (from 1991 through 2017) as compared to long-term data up to 1960. It also shows noticeable growth in outside temperature during the heating season: 3.9°C in Chita, 4.1°C in Irkutsk, and 5.0°C in Ulan-Ude. In the aggregate, changes in these indicators influenced the 15–19 percent decrease in the index of fuel consumption. An analysis of interannual fluctuations in heating season characteristics from 1991 through 2017 uncovered that anomalously low temperatures have greater magnitudes and are seen more frequently than anomalously warm winters. The index of fuel consumption varied by 14—20 percent interannually. This is comparable to long-term fluctuations (to 1960). It is demonstrated that against the background of ongoing warming, abrupt interannual temperature fluctuations are showing an ambiguous effect on economic activity in the Baikal region.