能源未来设计:澳大利亚参与式前瞻性研究

IF 2.3 Q3 REGIONAL & URBAN PLANNING
Foresight Pub Date : 2022-08-08 DOI:10.1108/fs-09-2021-0186
I. Koskinen, Nicholas Gilmore, Emi Minghui Gui
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引用次数: 1

摘要

目的本文旨在:首先,研究专家对澳大利亚清洁、分散能源技术未来的看法;其次,为即将进行的研究开发一种解释性和参与性的前瞻性方法。设计/方法/途径本文报道了一项关于清洁能源未来的预测研究。在经济和不断变化的碳政策的推动下,能源部门目前正从化石燃料转向各种清洁技术。能源专家对这种变化将如何发生有几种不可通约的解释。本文描述了一项正在进行的研究的第一阶段,该研究展望了澳大利亚的清洁能源未来。通过建立在科学专家社区的参与式方法之上,它描述了从技术假设到四个平行但相互关联的场景的路径。本文还探讨了这些场景背后的社会驱动因素。发现首先,澳大利亚的能源专家将期货分为四种主要情景:充足,能源主要由太阳能电池生产;交易,能源的未来在于虚拟发电厂和微电网;循环,通过生物材料、碳捕获和新的强大功能实现澳大利亚的NetZero目标;安全,通过煤炭和核能确保国家能源供应。其次,他们将策略定位为最重要的通配符形式。该政策从地方到美国政治都是多层面的,不在预测范围内。研究局限性/含义研究最重要的局限性是:首先,它依赖科学和技术专家,这保证了它的科学有效性,但可能低估了能源的社会驱动力;其次,这项研究是一项针对工业、商业和地方驱动因素的更大规模研究的方法试点;第三,它将重点放在澳大利亚,那里的政治、国家规模和气候以特定的方式影响着清洁能源的使用,尤其是太阳能的快速使用。实际含义本文的主要实际含义是其对清洁能源未来的广泛关注及其参与式前瞻方法,这可以在其他研究中重复。社会含义该研究的主要社会含义是,它清楚地表明,在理解清洁能源的未来方面,技术视角是必要的,但还不够。论文还表明,地方驱动因素对未来的塑造非常重要,在未来的研究和政策中应该考虑到这一点。这篇论文有两个贡献。首先,它将几种技术组织成四种场景,比零碎的研究更能阐明澳大利亚的清洁能源未来。其次,它通过借鉴设计研究的经验,开发并试行了一种解释性参与式的未来研究方法。该方法将用于后续研究。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Designing energy futures: a participatory foresight study in Australia
Purpose This paper aims to: first, it studies expert opinions about the future of clean, decentralized energy technology in Australia; second, develop an interpretive and participatory foresighting methodology for a forthcoming study. Design/methodology/approach This paper reports a forecasting study about the future of clean energy. Driven mostly by economics and changing carbon policies, the energy sector is currently moving from fossil fuels to a variety of cleaner technologies. Energy experts have several incommensurate interpretations of how this change will happen. This paper describes the first phase of an ongoing study that foresight clean energy futures in Australia. By building on a participatory method in a scientific expert community, it describes the path from technological presumptions into four parallel yet interconnected scenarios. The paper also explores the social drivers behind these scenarios. Findings First, energy experts in Australia classify futures into four main scenarios: abundant, where energy will be mostly produced by solar cells; traded, where the future of energy lies in virtual power plants and microgrids; circular, which targets Australia’s NetZero goals through biomaterials, carbon capture and new powerful; secure, which secures the country’s energy supply through coal and nuclear energy. Second, they locate policy as the most important form of wildcards. The policy is multilayered from local to US politics and falls outside the scope of forecasting. Research limitations/implications The most important limitations of the study are: first, its reliance on scientific and technological experts, which guarantees its scientific validity but may underrepresent the social drivers of energy; second, this study is a methodological pilot of a larger study that will target industrial, commercial and local drivers; third, its focus on Australia, where politics, the size of the country and climate shape the uptake of clean energy in specific ways, most notably in the case of rapid uptake of solar energy. Practical implications The main practical implications of the paper are its broad focus on clean energy futures and its participatory foresighting approach, which can be repeated in other studies. Social implications The main social implication of the study is that it clearly shows that a technological perspective is necessary but not sufficient in understanding the future of clean energy. The paper also shows that local drivers importantly mold the future and should be taken into account in future studies and policy. Originality/value This paper makes two contributions. First, it organizes several technologies into four scenarios that clarify Australia’s clean energy futures better than a piecemeal study would do. Second, it developed and piloted an interpretive participatory methodology for studying futures by building on references from design research. This methodology will be used in subsequent studies.
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来源期刊
Foresight
Foresight REGIONAL & URBAN PLANNING-
CiteScore
5.10
自引率
5.00%
发文量
45
期刊介绍: ■Social, political and economic science ■Sustainable development ■Horizon scanning ■Scientific and Technological Change and its implications for society and policy ■Management of Uncertainty, Complexity and Risk ■Foresight methodology, tools and techniques
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