气候变化对未来共同安全和国防政策任务和行动的影响

Radosław Turczyński
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在已知的世界历史上,自工业化时代开始以来,人们对气候变化的影响从未如此之大。规模巨大、前所未有的工业生产,除了其好处外,还通过向大气中排放温室气体,导致全球范围的气候变化。根据AR5 IPCC的报告,预计不断增加的二氧化碳排放量和缺乏减少二氧化碳排放的行动将使前工业化时代到2100年的全球平均气温上升4摄氏度。如此重大的气候变化可能给我们星球上的居民带来灾难性和不可逆转的后果。耗尽饮用水源、无法耕种的土地和消耗自然资源将迫使人们为剩余的资源而战。军事团体的出现将导致内部武装冲突和国际紧张局势,这是由于人们从最不容易受到气候变化影响的国家大规模移民到欧盟国家等高度发达地区。安全背景下的气候变化是多层面的,几乎影响到每个部门。欧盟国家将被迫对抗气候变化的影响,不仅要通过联合国内部的协议或宣言,还要通过让自己的力量和资源参与CSDP的任务和行动。CSDP目前的活动将通过支持不发达国家适应新气候条件的技术来加强和多样化。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The effect of climate change on future Common Security and Defence Policy missions and operations
Never before in the known history of the world people had such a great impact on climate change as since the beginning of the era of industrialization. Industrial production on a huge, unprecedented scale, apart from its benefits, causes climate change on a global scale through the emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. According to the AR5 IPCC report, it is expected that the ever-increasing CO2 emissions and the lack of action to reduce it will increase the average global temperature from the pre-industrial era by up to 4 degrees Celsius to 2100. Such significant climate change can have catastrophic and irreversible consequences for the inhabitants of our planet. Exhausting sources of drinking water, land that cannot be cultivated and depleting natural resources will force people to fight for what will remain. The emergence of military groups will result in both internal armed conflicts and international tensions caused by mass migration of people from countries with the least vulnerability to the effects of climate change, to highly developed regions such as EU countries. Climate change in the context of security is multidimensional and affects almost every sector. EU countries will be forced to counteract the effects of climate change not only through agreements or declarations within the UN, but also by involving their own forces and resources in CSDP missions and operations. The current activities under CSDP will be intensified as well as diversified by implementing support for technological adaptation to new climate conditions in undeveloped countries.
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