Synergies between China's Whole County photovoltaic program and rural heat pump adoption

Electrification of heating, particularly with highly‐efficient heat pumps, is increasingly viewed as essential for reaching the targets of the Paris Climate Agreement. China has promoted replacement of dirty coal heating in rural areas. More recently China has also begun promoting distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) energy as a rural development strategy, particularly with the launch of the Whole County PV pilot program in 2021. While several studies have examined the economics of heat pump adoption, with or without solar PV, the Whole County PV program has not been specifically studied. Further, many prior studies utilize monthly average solar production or temperature ranges. This study examines the economics of heat pumps in participating counties in the Whole County PV program, employing hourly data for both PV output and ambient temperature in participating counties. The analysis shows that pairing residential heat pumps with PV in counties in Shandong, Henan, and Jiangsu would result in short economic payback periods versus gas or resistance heat, while also increasing self‐consumption of PV. The results suggest that expanding the Whole County PV program to incorporate energy efficiency and heating/cooling measures represents an economically attractive way to accelerate the rural energy transition and improve rural livelihoods. Such a policy would help accelerate the low‐carbon energy transition, reduce air pollutant emissions, and help address oversupply of midday PV output in local areas. Barriers to the approach include involvement of different government ministries, the cost of upgrading building insulation, the design of building codes, and the structure of electricity tariffs.