Trade Continuity and Global Production Sharing in Emerging Economies: Evidence from Panel Gravity Analysis

ABSTRACT This article examines the effect of trade continuity, measured by the lagged imports of intermediate goods, on global production sharing in emerging economies. We estimate an augmented gravity model using the Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood method with a panel dataset of bilateral exports of 29 emerging economies from 2004 to 2017. Our results show that trade continuity positively affects global production sharing. We provide new empirical evidence that trade continuity is process-specific and may vary between parts and components and final assembly stages. Our findings have policy implications on the process-specific nature of global production sharing.