{"title":"金融市场、通货膨胀与经济增长:不同政治结构下货币政策的影响","authors":"Abdorasoul Sadeghi , Seyed Komail Tayebi , Soheil Roudari","doi":"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.08.003","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p><span>This study assesses the likely effects of different political structures on economic growth by the effects of interest rate<span> on the linkage between financial markets. For this aim, we chose two developing economies with different governance structures, Iran and Argentina. There is a political structure in Iran influenced by religion, whereas Argentina’s political structure does not deal with religion. We first assess the causality amongst the financial markets of the stock market, bank deposits, and the foreign currency market (CM). Then, the effects of the markets and </span></span>inflation<span><span> on economic growth are assessed using Granger-causality tests and Markov-switching models. The results show that there are bidirectional causalities between the financial markets in Iran, and unidirectional causalities in Argentina. The markets affect economic growth in the both countries. For Iran, the monetary policy instrument of </span>interest rate indicates no causalities to the markets, whereas there are strong causalities from interest rate to the markets in Argentina. As a result, Argentinian Central Bank can affect economic growth through the money flow between the markets by freely changing interest rate proportioned with the economic situation. Whereas there is no such a possibility for Iran’s Central Bank. In other words, an active Central bank against the inflation volatility in Argentina versus a passive Central Bank in Iran is one of the consequences of the interest rate repression in a political structure influenced by religion.</span></p></div>","PeriodicalId":48015,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policy Modeling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.5000,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Financial markets, inflation and growth: The impact of monetary policy under different political structures\",\"authors\":\"Abdorasoul Sadeghi , Seyed Komail Tayebi , Soheil Roudari\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.jpolmod.2023.08.003\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p><span>This study assesses the likely effects of different political structures on economic growth by the effects of interest rate<span> on the linkage between financial markets. For this aim, we chose two developing economies with different governance structures, Iran and Argentina. There is a political structure in Iran influenced by religion, whereas Argentina’s political structure does not deal with religion. We first assess the causality amongst the financial markets of the stock market, bank deposits, and the foreign currency market (CM). Then, the effects of the markets and </span></span>inflation<span><span> on economic growth are assessed using Granger-causality tests and Markov-switching models. The results show that there are bidirectional causalities between the financial markets in Iran, and unidirectional causalities in Argentina. The markets affect economic growth in the both countries. For Iran, the monetary policy instrument of </span>interest rate indicates no causalities to the markets, whereas there are strong causalities from interest rate to the markets in Argentina. As a result, Argentinian Central Bank can affect economic growth through the money flow between the markets by freely changing interest rate proportioned with the economic situation. Whereas there is no such a possibility for Iran’s Central Bank. In other words, an active Central bank against the inflation volatility in Argentina versus a passive Central Bank in Iran is one of the consequences of the interest rate repression in a political structure influenced by religion.</span></p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":48015,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Policy Modeling\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.5000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-09-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Policy Modeling\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0161893823000972\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Policy Modeling","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0161893823000972","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Financial markets, inflation and growth: The impact of monetary policy under different political structures
This study assesses the likely effects of different political structures on economic growth by the effects of interest rate on the linkage between financial markets. For this aim, we chose two developing economies with different governance structures, Iran and Argentina. There is a political structure in Iran influenced by religion, whereas Argentina’s political structure does not deal with religion. We first assess the causality amongst the financial markets of the stock market, bank deposits, and the foreign currency market (CM). Then, the effects of the markets and inflation on economic growth are assessed using Granger-causality tests and Markov-switching models. The results show that there are bidirectional causalities between the financial markets in Iran, and unidirectional causalities in Argentina. The markets affect economic growth in the both countries. For Iran, the monetary policy instrument of interest rate indicates no causalities to the markets, whereas there are strong causalities from interest rate to the markets in Argentina. As a result, Argentinian Central Bank can affect economic growth through the money flow between the markets by freely changing interest rate proportioned with the economic situation. Whereas there is no such a possibility for Iran’s Central Bank. In other words, an active Central bank against the inflation volatility in Argentina versus a passive Central Bank in Iran is one of the consequences of the interest rate repression in a political structure influenced by religion.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of Policy Modeling is published by Elsevier for the Society for Policy Modeling to provide a forum for analysis and debate concerning international policy issues. The journal addresses questions of critical import to the world community as a whole, and it focuses upon the economic, social, and political interdependencies between national and regional systems. This implies concern with international policies for the promotion of a better life for all human beings and, therefore, concentrates on improved methodological underpinnings for dealing with these problems.