Prognostic relevance of motor tests in elite girls’ soccer: a five-year prospective cohort study within the German talent promotion program

ABSTRACT Introduction: While research has provided valuable information about talent predictors, there is a gap regarding female soccer. This study analyzed the prognostic relevance of motor tests for players’ future selection level in female soccer and assessed the role of sex as a moderator variable. Methods: Within the German talent promotion program, N = 499 U12 girls participated in motor diagnostics (sprint, agility, dribbling, ball control, shooting). Five years later, 14.2% of them made the youth national team (NT), 18.8% the regional association team (RA), and 66.9% were not further selected (NS). The tests’ predictive validity for achieving one of these levels was analyzed using ANOVAs with post-hoc tests and logistic regressions. Subsequently, results were compared to data from previous research with N = 22,843 male U12 players. Results: Girls’ performances in the motor diagnostics significantly discriminated between all three selection levels. Future NT players outperformed NS (d = 1.04) and RA players (d = 0.55), who, in turn, performed better than NS players (d = 0.47). Exception for dribbling, the motor tests demonstrated predictive validity independent of sex. Discussion: Although diagnostics are not sensitive enough to determine individual decisions for talent selection, they provide objective information to supplement coaches’ work.