国际收支顺差与越南的一些政策建议

IF 0.5 Q3 AREA STUDIES
Vu Ha Nguyen Thi
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引用次数: 1

摘要

国际收支是一个重要的宏观经济指标,有助于了解一个国家与外国经济交易的总体情况。越南央行近年来一直处于盈余状态,即使受到新冠肺炎疫情的严重影响。基于描述性统计方法、比较、分析和综合,本文表明,越南经常项目顺差主要是由于贸易顺差所致。此外,尽管收到了大量汇款,但越南必须支付给外国投资者的金额总是远远超过越南在国外投资的收入,导致收入平衡出现赤字。越南的金融账户也出现盈余,因为她获得了大量的外国直接投资。越南央行的盈余增强了越南的外部地位,但也给本国货币带来了升值压力,并对未来宏观经济的不确定性发出了警告。因此,在未来,越南需要确定其政策的优先事项,是稳定汇率,还是在资本账户日益自由化的背景下制定独立的货币政策。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Surplus in balance of payments and some policy recommendations for Vietnam
The balance of payments (BoP) is a critical macroeconomic indicator that helps understand the overall picture of a country's economic transactions with foreign ones. Vietnam's BoP has continuously been in surplus in recent years, even when heavily affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. Based on descriptive statistical methods, comparison, analysis and synthesis, this article has shown that the surplus in the current account of Vietnam was mainly due to the surplus in the trade balance. In addition, despite receiving large remittances, the amount of money that Vietnam had to pay to foreign investors was always much more excess than that Vietnam earns from investing abroad, causing the balance of income to run in deficit. Vietnam's financial account was also in surplus because she has received an enormous amount of foreign direct investments. The surplus in Vietnam's BoP has enhanced Vietnam's external position, but it has put pressure on the domestic currency to appreciate and warn of future macroeconomic uncertainties. Therefore, in the future, Vietnam needs to determine the priority in its policy whether to stabilise the exchange rate or have an independent monetary policy in the context of increasingly liberalised capital accounts.
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