The Within-Individual Effects of U.S. Immigration on Individual-Level Offending During Adolescence and Early Adulthood

Objectives: Prior contextual-level studies suggest that individuals who reside in areas with higher concentrations of foreign-born residents engage in less crime and delinquency. Yet, this work has relied on either cross-sectional models or longitudinal data with only baseline measurements of immigration, which tells us little about whether temporal changes in immigrant concentration affect changes in individual-level offending. We addressed this shortcoming by conducting a contextual-level study that uses a within-individual research design. Methods: Using public and restricted data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 and U.S. Census data, we employed Bayesian random-effects models to examine the within-individual associations between the percentage of the population that is foreign-born in respondents’ county of residence and two indicators of criminal offending during adolescence and early adulthood. Results: Findings indicated that percent foreign-born was associated with subsequent reductions in criminal arrest but not self-reported offending. Moreover, we found that these effects were similar regardless of whether respondents moved or remained in place over time. Finally, for self-reported offending, the effects of percent foreign-born were stronger for first-generation immigrants, but for arrest, they were similar across generation. Conclusions: Immigrant concentration is a time-varying phenomenon that has the potential to reduce individual-level offending.