地震和海啸灾害破坏和损失建模的国家和地方建筑清单的比较:从地块到城市规模

IF 4.2 1区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
Dylan Sanderson, Daniel Cox
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引用次数: 2

摘要

在本文中,我们将美国最近发布的建筑清单《国家结构清单》与用于地震海啸灾害的破坏和损失建模的当地税务评估员建筑清单进行了比较。俄勒冈州海滨市位于北美太平洋西北部,受到卡斯卡迪亚俯冲带地震海啸的影响,被用作试验台。输入属性(如空间占地面积、建造年份、结构类型和层数)在地块、块、块组和地块级别进行比较。输入属性在地块级别上显示出很大的差异,并且在增加的空间尺度上聚合时比较有利。与税务评估员的数据相比,国家结构清单一直低估了结构价值和故事数量。使用开源社区恢复力模型IN-CORE计算了从100年到10000年的7个平均复发期的预期损害。国家结构清单的预期损害往往略大于税务评估员数据的预期损害,并且当在增加的空间尺度上进行汇总时,误差会减少。与税务评估员的数据相比,国家结构清单低估了总经济损失和风险,特别是与高经济风险相关的重现期。进行基于方差的灵敏度分析,以确定输入属性中的不确定性如何传播到预期损伤中的不确定因素。结构类型、设计水平和建筑位置都会影响地震海啸灾害的预期损害,这突出了准确的建筑清单在多灾害损害和损失建模中的重要性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Comparison of national and local building inventories for damage and loss modeling of seismic and tsunami hazards: From parcel-to city-scale

In this paper, we compare the National Structure Inventory, a recently released building inventory for the United States, with a local tax assessor building inventory for use in damage and loss modeling of seismic-tsunami hazards. The city of Seaside, Oregon located in the North American Pacific Northwest and subject to seismic-tsunami hazards from the Cascadia Subduction Zone is used as a testbed. Input attributes – such as spatial footprint, year built, structure type, and number of stories – are compared at the parcel, block, block group, and tract levels. The input attributes show large differences at the parcel level and compare favorably when aggregated at increased spatial scales. The National Structure Inventory consistently underestimates structure value and number of stories compared to the tax assessor data. Expected damages across 7 mean recurrence intervals, from 100-yr to 10,000-yr, are computed using IN-CORE, an open-source community resilience model. Expected damage to the National Structure Inventory tends to be slightly larger than that of the tax assessor data and errors are reduced when aggregated at increased spatial scales. The National Structure Inventory underpredicts total economic losses and risks compared to the tax assessor data, particularly for recurrence intervals associated with high economic risks. A variance-based sensitivity analysis is performed to identify how uncertainties in the input attributes propagate to uncertainties in expected damage. Structure type, design-level, and building location all influence expected damages for seismic-tsunami hazards, highlighting the importance of accurate building inventories in multi-hazard damage and loss modeling.

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来源期刊
International journal of disaster risk reduction
International journal of disaster risk reduction GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARYMETEOROLOGY-METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
CiteScore
8.70
自引率
18.00%
发文量
688
审稿时长
79 days
期刊介绍: The International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction (IJDRR) is the journal for researchers, policymakers and practitioners across diverse disciplines: earth sciences and their implications; environmental sciences; engineering; urban studies; geography; and the social sciences. IJDRR publishes fundamental and applied research, critical reviews, policy papers and case studies with a particular focus on multi-disciplinary research that aims to reduce the impact of natural, technological, social and intentional disasters. IJDRR stimulates exchange of ideas and knowledge transfer on disaster research, mitigation, adaptation, prevention and risk reduction at all geographical scales: local, national and international. Key topics:- -multifaceted disaster and cascading disasters -the development of disaster risk reduction strategies and techniques -discussion and development of effective warning and educational systems for risk management at all levels -disasters associated with climate change -vulnerability analysis and vulnerability trends -emerging risks -resilience against disasters. The journal particularly encourages papers that approach risk from a multi-disciplinary perspective.
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