Chi Kit Tang , Johnny C.L. Chan , Munehiko Yamaguchi
{"title":"北太平洋西部盆地全球数值天气预报模式的大热带气旋路径预报误差","authors":"Chi Kit Tang , Johnny C.L. Chan , Munehiko Yamaguchi","doi":"10.1016/j.tcrr.2021.07.001","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Although tropical cyclone (TC) track forecast errors (TFEs) of operational warning centres have substantially decreased in recent decades, there are still many cases with large TFEs. The International Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) data are used to study the possible reasons for the large TFE cases and to compare the performance of different numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Forty-four TCs in the western North Pacific during the period 2007–2014 with TFEs (+24 to +120 h) larger than the 75th percentile of the annual error distribution (with a total of 93 cases) are identified.</p><p>Four categories of situations are found to be associated with large TFEs. These include the interaction of the outer structure of the TC with tropical weather systems, the intensity of the TC, the extension of the subtropical high (SH) and the interaction with the westerly trough. The crucial factor of each category attributed to the large TFE is discussed.</p><p>Among the TIGGE model predictions, the models of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the UK Met Office generally have a smaller TFE. The performance of different models in different situations is discussed.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":44442,"journal":{"name":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","volume":"10 3","pages":"Pages 151-169"},"PeriodicalIF":2.4000,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.tcrr.2021.07.001","citationCount":"7","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Large tropical cyclone track forecast errors of global numerical weather prediction models in western North Pacific basin\",\"authors\":\"Chi Kit Tang , Johnny C.L. Chan , Munehiko Yamaguchi\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.tcrr.2021.07.001\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>Although tropical cyclone (TC) track forecast errors (TFEs) of operational warning centres have substantially decreased in recent decades, there are still many cases with large TFEs. The International Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) data are used to study the possible reasons for the large TFE cases and to compare the performance of different numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Forty-four TCs in the western North Pacific during the period 2007–2014 with TFEs (+24 to +120 h) larger than the 75th percentile of the annual error distribution (with a total of 93 cases) are identified.</p><p>Four categories of situations are found to be associated with large TFEs. These include the interaction of the outer structure of the TC with tropical weather systems, the intensity of the TC, the extension of the subtropical high (SH) and the interaction with the westerly trough. The crucial factor of each category attributed to the large TFE is discussed.</p><p>Among the TIGGE model predictions, the models of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the UK Met Office generally have a smaller TFE. The performance of different models in different situations is discussed.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":44442,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review\",\"volume\":\"10 3\",\"pages\":\"Pages 151-169\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.4000,\"publicationDate\":\"2021-09-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.tcrr.2021.07.001\",\"citationCount\":\"7\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2225603221000242\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Tropical Cyclone Research and Review","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2225603221000242","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Large tropical cyclone track forecast errors of global numerical weather prediction models in western North Pacific basin
Although tropical cyclone (TC) track forecast errors (TFEs) of operational warning centres have substantially decreased in recent decades, there are still many cases with large TFEs. The International Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) data are used to study the possible reasons for the large TFE cases and to compare the performance of different numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Forty-four TCs in the western North Pacific during the period 2007–2014 with TFEs (+24 to +120 h) larger than the 75th percentile of the annual error distribution (with a total of 93 cases) are identified.
Four categories of situations are found to be associated with large TFEs. These include the interaction of the outer structure of the TC with tropical weather systems, the intensity of the TC, the extension of the subtropical high (SH) and the interaction with the westerly trough. The crucial factor of each category attributed to the large TFE is discussed.
Among the TIGGE model predictions, the models of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the UK Met Office generally have a smaller TFE. The performance of different models in different situations is discussed.
期刊介绍:
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review is an international journal focusing on tropical cyclone monitoring, forecasting, and research as well as associated hydrological effects and disaster risk reduction. This journal is edited and published by the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee (TC) and the Shanghai Typhoon Institute of the China Meteorology Administration (STI/CMA). Contributions from all tropical cyclone basins are welcome.
Scope of the journal includes:
• Reviews of tropical cyclones exhibiting unusual characteristics or behavior or resulting in disastrous impacts on Typhoon Committee Members and other regional WMO bodies
• Advances in applied and basic tropical cyclone research or technology to improve tropical cyclone forecasts and warnings
• Basic theoretical studies of tropical cyclones
• Event reports, compelling images, and topic review reports of tropical cyclones
• Impacts, risk assessments, and risk management techniques related to tropical cyclones