2018年台风苏力和西马龙的二元相互作用-Ⅰ:观测特征和预报误差

IF 2.4 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Eun-Jeong Cha , Sug-gyeong Yun , Il-Ju Moon , Dong-Hoon Kim
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引用次数: 4

摘要

为了了解结构变化和预测误差,利用最佳跟踪和再分析数据,以2018年北太平洋西部双台风为例进行了研究。Soulik于8月16日产生,Cimaron于8月18日产生。18日至24日,第19号台风“苏力”和第20号台风“西马隆”同时出现,并相互靠近。Soulik位于西侧,Cimaron位于西侧。它们在8月22日世界时相距约1300 公里。8月22日左右,Soulik的结构开始发生变化,变得微弱而缓慢,而Cimaron的强度、大小和移动速度保持不变。这一观测证据很可能是由于一定距离内两个台风的二元相互作用和环境导向气流所致,如北太平洋高压的位置和北太平洋高压北侧强急流等。最初预测“苏力”将登陆并到达首尔;然而,根据官方指引和统一模式(UM),其路径在8月21日至23日由北转向东北。四种全球数值天气预报模式预测了苏力克的不同路径。UM和JGSM预报气旋将向北移动,而ECMWF和GFS则在8月21日至8月24日12时显示气旋将向东北移动。后一种模型与最佳轨道相似。“苏力克”的航迹预报误差和传播范围均大于“西马龙”。“苏力克”最大风速的平均绝对误差与2018年台风总数的平均值相近。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Binary interaction of typhoons Soulik and Cimaron in 2018 – Part Ⅰ: Observational characteristics and forecast error

To understand structural changes and forecast error, a case study of binary typhoons in the western North Pacific (WNP) of 2018 was investigated using best track and reanalysis data. Soulik was generated on August 16 and Cimaron was generated on August 18, respectively. The 19th typhoon Soulik and 20th typhoon Cimaron co-existed from August 18 to 24 and approached each other. Soulik was located on the western side and Cimaron was located on the eastern side of the WNP. They were located approximately 1300 km from each other at 00 UTC August 22. The Soulik structure began changing around August 22 and became weak and slow, while Cimaron maintained its intensity, size, and moving speed. This observational evidence is likely caused by the binary interaction between two typhoons within a certain distance and environmental steering flow, such as the location of the North Pacific high and strong jet stream of the northern flank of the North Pacific high.

Soulik was initially forecasted to make landfall and reach Seoul; however, its track changed from northward to northeastward from August 21 to 23 according to both official guidance and unified model (UM). Four global numerical weather prediction models forecasted different tracks of Soulik. UM and JGSM forecasted a northward track whereas ECMWF and GFS showed a northeastward track for 12 UTC August 21 through 12 UTC August 24. The latter models were similar to the best track. The track forecast error and spread of Soulik were larger than those of Cimaron. The mean absolute error of the maximum wind speed of Soulik was similar to the average of total typhoons in 2018.

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来源期刊
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES-
CiteScore
4.60
自引率
3.40%
发文量
184
审稿时长
30 weeks
期刊介绍: Tropical Cyclone Research and Review is an international journal focusing on tropical cyclone monitoring, forecasting, and research as well as associated hydrological effects and disaster risk reduction. This journal is edited and published by the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee (TC) and the Shanghai Typhoon Institute of the China Meteorology Administration (STI/CMA). Contributions from all tropical cyclone basins are welcome. Scope of the journal includes: • Reviews of tropical cyclones exhibiting unusual characteristics or behavior or resulting in disastrous impacts on Typhoon Committee Members and other regional WMO bodies • Advances in applied and basic tropical cyclone research or technology to improve tropical cyclone forecasts and warnings • Basic theoretical studies of tropical cyclones • Event reports, compelling images, and topic review reports of tropical cyclones • Impacts, risk assessments, and risk management techniques related to tropical cyclones
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